DCF Studio

    NKE · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    NIKE, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 33.32

    Market price

    USD 39.12

    Implied upside

    -14.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-05-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 33.32-14.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 38.44-1.7%
    Market price
    USD 39.12

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 42.8bnUSD 43.2bnUSD 43.7bnUSD 44.3bnUSD 45.0bnUSD 45.8bnUSD 46.7bnUSD 47.6bnUSD 48.7bnUSD 50.0bn+1.7%
    EBITUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bn+1.7%
    NOPATUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bn+1.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 725.7mUSD 732.7mUSD 741.3mUSD 751.3mUSD 763.0mUSD 776.2mUSD 791.2mUSD 808.0mUSD 826.6mUSD 847.3m+1.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -628.6mUSD -695.0mUSD -764.1mUSD -836.2mUSD -911.9mUSD -991.6mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bn+9.0%
    Capex, % of revenue1.5%1.6%1.7%1.9%2.0%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 681.8mUSD -79.0mUSD -95.3mUSD -112.2mUSD -129.7mUSD -147.9mUSD -167.0mUSD -187.0mUSD -208.1mUSD -230.5m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 4.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.4bn-2.7%
    Discount factor0.95940.88300.81270.74810.68850.63370.58330.53690.49410.4548-
    Present valueUSD 4.1bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 24.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.021Reported 1.031, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.21%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 58.1bn84.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 11.0bn16.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate17.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.65%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 33.32

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (14.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -585.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    17.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 59.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 27.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 51.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 49.4bn

    Exit at 13.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 38.44

    59% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 76.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 34.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 58.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 56.9bn

    Spread between methods: 14%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.65%44.3846.3248.7751.9556.20
    7.65%37.2138.2639.5541.1643.20
    8.65%32.0532.6233.3234.1835.23
    9.65%28.1528.4628.8329.2829.84
    10.65%25.1125.2625.4425.6625.94

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 39.12. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-3.2%0.7%2.9%
    EBIT margin12.3%10.0%11.7%
    Discount rate-8.6%7.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.