DCF Studio

    NN.AS · AMS · Financial Services

    NN Group N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR -1.44

    Market price

    EUR 80.24

    Implied upside

    -101.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedOnly 3 year(s) of history available to anchor assumptions on.
    AdjustedConsensus rests on as few as 2 analyst estimate(s).
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.00% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.50% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR -1.44-101.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 15.96-80.1%
    Market price
    EUR 80.24

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m251m502mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 7.6bnEUR 6.7bnEUR 5.9bnEUR 5.2bnEUR 4.6bn-11.6%
    EBITEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 965.6mEUR 853.4mEUR 754.2m-11.6%
    NOPATEUR 980.7mEUR 866.7mEUR 766.0mEUR 676.9mEUR 598.2m-11.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 111.5mEUR 98.6mEUR 87.1mEUR 77.0mEUR 68.0m-11.6%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -113.9mEUR -100.6mEUR -88.9mEUR -78.6mEUR -69.5m-11.6%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -476.3mEUR -421.0mEUR -372.0mEUR -328.8mEUR -290.6m-11.6%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 502.1mEUR 443.7mEUR 392.1mEUR 346.5mEUR 306.3m-11.6%
    Discount factor0.96130.88820.82080.75840.7008-
    Present valueEUR 482.6mEUR 394.1mEUR 321.8mEUR 262.8mEUR 214.6m-18.3%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 1.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.686Reported 0.532, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.66%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt9.52%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 20.9bn60.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 13.7bn39.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.22%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR -1.44

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 306.3m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 598.2m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.4% of NOPAT)
    EUR -181.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 416.3m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 7.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 5.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 6.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR -382.0m

    Exit at 17.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 15.96

    85% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 14.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 9.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 11.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 4.2bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.22%7.167.297.437.577.71
    7.22%2.142.262.372.492.60
    8.22%-1.63-1.54-1.44-1.34-1.25
    9.22%-4.58-4.49-4.41-4.33-4.25
    10.22%-6.93-6.86-6.79-6.72-6.65

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 80.24. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-11.6%14.1%+25.7pp
    EBIT margin16.3%57.9%+41.6pp
    Discount rate8.2%3.1%-5.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.