DCF Studio

    NTAP · NMS · Technology

    NetApp, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 104.44

    Market price

    USD 185.26

    Implied upside

    -43.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-04-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 104.44-43.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 164.42-11.2%
    Market price
    USD 185.26

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.9bn+4.2%
    EBITUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bn+4.2%
    NOPATUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bn+4.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 297.7mUSD 315.5mUSD 332.9mUSD 349.9mUSD 366.3mUSD 381.8mUSD 396.3mUSD 409.6mUSD 421.7mUSD 432.2m+4.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -238.2mUSD -267.5mUSD -298.2mUSD -330.2mUSD -363.1mUSD -396.7mUSD -430.7mUSD -464.8mUSD -498.6mUSD -531.7m+9.3%
    Capex, % of revenue2.9%3.1%3.3%3.4%3.6%3.8%4.0%4.1%4.3%4.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -160.1mUSD -62.2mUSD -61.1mUSD -59.5mUSD -57.2mUSD -54.3mUSD -50.8mUSD -46.7mUSD -42.1mUSD -36.9m-15.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+4.3%
    Discount factor0.95290.86520.78560.71330.64770.58810.53400.48480.44020.3997-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 990.5mUSD 926.4mUSD 862.9mUSD 800.2mUSD 739.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 10.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.344Reported 1.514, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.58%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 15.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 36.4bn93.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.7bn7.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.13%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 104.44

    50% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (9.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -188.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.9bn
    ROIC (reported)
    27.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 25.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 10.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -851.0m
    Equity value
    USD 21.0bn

    Exit at 18.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 164.42

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 55.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 22.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD -851.0m
    Equity value
    USD 33.0bn

    Spread between methods: 45%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.13%130.37134.49139.42145.39152.74
    9.13%113.69116.26119.29122.88127.17
    10.13%100.89102.53104.44106.67109.29
    11.13%90.7791.8293.0494.4496.07
    12.13%82.5883.2484.0084.8885.91

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 185.26. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.9%5.5%13.4%
    EBIT margin24.5%21.2%38.5%
    Discount rate-10.1%6.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.