DCF Studio

    NTGY.MC · MCE · Utilities

    Naturgy Energy Group, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 37.49

    Market price

    EUR 29.40

    Implied upside

    +27.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 9.5% of revenue against depreciation of 6.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 37.49+27.5%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 25.66-12.7%
    Market price
    EUR 29.40

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueEUR 20.6bnEUR 20.3bnEUR 20.1bnEUR 20.1bnEUR 20.1bnEUR 20.2bnEUR 20.4bnEUR 20.7bnEUR 21.1bnEUR 21.7bn+0.6%
    EBITEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.6bnEUR 3.7bn+0.6%
    NOPATEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.8bn+0.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bn+0.6%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -2.0bnEUR -1.9bnEUR -1.9bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.8bn-1.1%
    Capex, % of revenue9.5%9.4%9.2%9.1%8.9%8.8%8.7%8.5%8.4%8.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -50.7mEUR 12.5mEUR 8.0mEUR 3.6mEUR -733.6kEUR -5.0mEUR -9.4mEUR -13.9mEUR -18.5mEUR -23.4m-8.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.4bn+2.1%
    Discount factor0.96820.90750.85060.79730.74730.70050.65660.61540.57690.5407-
    Present valueEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 15.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.662Reported 0.495, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.50%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.98%Risk-free + 78bp, the spread for a A rating at 5.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.2%.
    Market capitalisationEUR 27.2bn61.9% of capital
    Total debtEUR 16.7bn38.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.69%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 37.49

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 2.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 3.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (21.2% of NOPAT)
    EUR -636.4m
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    11.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 57.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 31.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 47.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 12.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 34.9bn

    Exit at 7.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 25.66

    56% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 37.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 20.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 36.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 12.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 23.9bn

    Spread between methods: 37%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.69%64.3871.6582.4399.84132.26
    5.69%45.8648.8652.9258.6267.10
    6.69%34.5035.8037.4939.7442.80
    7.69%26.8227.3428.0128.9130.09
    8.69%21.2921.4121.6021.8722.26

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 29.40. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-17.0%1.1%-0.9%
    EBIT margin20.2%17.0%14.3%
    Discount rate-6.7%7.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.