NTRS · NMS · Financial Services
Northern Trust Corporation
Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck
Implied value per share
USD 110.00
Market price
USD 170.66
Implied upside
-35.5%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 14.1%
- Payout
- 38%
- Cost of equity
- 9.73%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 12.1bn | USD 13.1bn | USD 14.0bn | USD 15.0bn | USD 16.0bn | USD 16.9bn | USD 17.7bn | USD 18.5bn | USD 19.2bn | USD 19.8bn |
| Return on equity | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% |
| Excess return | USD 528.3m | USD 571.4m | USD 614.5m | USD 656.9m | USD 698.1m | USD 737.5m | USD 774.4m | USD 808.4m | USD 838.8m | USD 865.0m |
| Present value | USD 481.5m | USD 474.6m | USD 465.1m | USD 453.1m | USD 438.8m | USD 422.4m | USD 404.3m | USD 384.6m | USD 363.7m | USD 341.8m |
| Book equity | USD 12.1bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 4.2bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 4.8bn |
| Equity value | USD 21.1bn |
| Per share | USD 110.00 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 1.143 | Reported 1.214, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 9.73% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.