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    Nucor Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 193.95

    Market price

    USD 277.65

    Implied upside

    -30.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 8.0% of revenue against depreciation of 3.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 193.95-30.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 353.25+27.2%
    Market price
    USD 277.65

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 41.5bnUSD 42.8bnUSD 44.1bnUSD 45.5bnUSD 46.8bnUSD 48.1bnUSD 49.4bnUSD 50.7bnUSD 52.1bnUSD 53.4bn+2.8%
    EBITUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.2bn+2.8%
    NOPATUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.5bn+2.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bn+2.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -2.9bn-1.6%
    Capex, % of revenue8.0%7.7%7.4%7.1%6.8%6.5%6.2%6.0%5.7%5.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -1.7bnUSD -249.3mUSD -250.6mUSD -251.4mUSD -251.9mUSD -251.9mUSD -251.6mUSD -250.8mUSD -249.6mUSD -248.0m-19.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.5bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.3bn+14.8%
    Discount factor0.95050.85860.77560.70070.63300.57180.51650.46660.42150.3808-
    Present valueUSD 1.5bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 23.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.546Reported 1.815, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.43%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 15.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.4%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 63.0bn89.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 7.1bn10.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.70%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 193.95

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 6.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (18.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.3bn
    Capitalised
    USD 5.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    13.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 68.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 26.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 49.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 44.8bn

    Exit at 16.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 353.25

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 165.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 62.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 86.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 81.6bn

    Spread between methods: 58%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.70%262.00264.73268.29272.91278.88
    9.70%224.37224.92225.87227.31229.35
    10.70%195.12194.44193.95193.67193.66
    11.70%171.76170.38169.08167.87166.76
    12.70%152.70150.93149.19147.46145.76

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 277.65. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-7.8%5.1%9.7%
    EBIT margin25.3%15.3%20.4%
    Discount rate-10.7%8.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.