DCF Studio

    NVDA · NMS · Technology

    NVIDIA Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 244.77

    Market price

    USD 202.06

    Implied upside

    +21.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-01-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 3.5% of revenue against depreciation of 2.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 36.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 244.77+21.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 447.52+121.5%
    Market price
    USD 202.06

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn505bn1010bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 323.9bnUSD 485.9bnUSD 699.9bnUSD 966.8bnUSD 1278.0bnUSD 1613.5bnUSD 1941.2bnUSD 2220.2bnUSD 2407.6bnUSD 2467.8bn+25.3%
    EBITUSD 160.0bnUSD 240.0bnUSD 345.8bnUSD 477.6bnUSD 631.3bnUSD 797.0bnUSD 958.9bnUSD 1096.8bnUSD 1189.3bnUSD 1219.0bn+25.3%
    NOPATUSD 138.8bnUSD 208.2bnUSD 299.9bnUSD 414.2bnUSD 547.6bnUSD 691.3bnUSD 831.7bnUSD 951.3bnUSD 1031.6bnUSD 1057.3bn+25.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 8.9bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 19.1bnUSD 26.4bnUSD 35.0bnUSD 44.1bnUSD 53.1bnUSD 60.7bnUSD 65.9bnUSD 67.5bn+25.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -11.2bnUSD -17.1bnUSD -25.2bnUSD -35.5bnUSD -47.8bnUSD -61.5bnUSD -75.4bnUSD -87.8bnUSD -97.0bnUSD -101.2bn+27.7%
    Capex, % of revenue3.5%3.5%3.6%3.7%3.7%3.8%3.9%4.0%4.0%4.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -23.7bnUSD -35.5bnUSD -46.9bnUSD -58.5bnUSD -68.2bnUSD -73.5bnUSD -71.8bnUSD -61.2bnUSD -41.1bnUSD -13.2bn-6.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 112.8bnUSD 168.8bnUSD 246.9bnUSD 346.7bnUSD 466.5bnUSD 600.4bnUSD 737.6bnUSD 863.0bnUSD 959.4bnUSD 1010.5bn+27.6%
    Discount factor0.94220.83650.74260.65930.58530.51960.46130.40960.36360.3228-
    Present valueUSD 106.3bnUSD 141.2bnUSD 183.4bnUSD 228.6bnUSD 273.0bnUSD 312.0bnUSD 340.3bnUSD 353.4bnUSD 348.8bnUSD 326.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 2613.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.835Reported 2.247, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity12.66%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 503.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 4879.1bn99.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 11.0bn0.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC12.64%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 244.77

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1010.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1066.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (4.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -44.4bn
    Capitalised
    USD 1022.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    60.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 10333.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 3335.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 5948.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD -51.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 6000.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 447.52

    76% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 25730.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8305.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 10918.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD -51.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 10970.4bn

    Spread between methods: 59%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    10.64%302.34311.40321.64333.29346.65
    11.64%264.95271.48278.78286.98296.26
    12.64%234.67239.46244.77250.68257.29
    13.64%209.71213.28217.20221.53226.33
    14.64%188.85191.53194.45197.67201.22

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 202.06. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year100.0%27.6%24.8%
    EBIT margin62.4%49.4%41.1%
    Discount rate-12.6%14.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.