DCF Studio

    NWS · NMS · Communication Services

    News Corporation

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    USD 17.61

    Market price

    USD 32.46

    Implied upside

    -45.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 17.61-45.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 25.54-21.3%
    Market price
    USD 32.46

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m397m793mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.2bn+3.0%
    EBITUSD 990.3mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+3.0%
    NOPATUSD 782.4mUSD 809.2mUSD 835.9mUSD 862.6mUSD 889.2mUSD 915.5mUSD 941.6mUSD 967.3mUSD 992.6mUSD 1.0bn+3.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 501.6mUSD 518.8mUSD 536.0mUSD 553.1mUSD 570.1mUSD 587.0mUSD 603.7mUSD 620.2mUSD 636.4mUSD 652.3m+3.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -428.1mUSD -477.3mUSD -528.8mUSD -582.4mUSD -638.3mUSD -696.2mUSD -756.2mUSD -818.1mUSD -881.9mUSD -947.3m+9.2%
    Capex, % of revenue4.5%4.9%5.3%5.6%6.0%6.3%6.7%7.0%7.4%7.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -68.7mUSD -57.4mUSD -57.3mUSD -57.2mUSD -56.9mUSD -56.4mUSD -55.8mUSD -55.1mUSD -54.2mUSD -53.1m-2.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 787.2mUSD 793.3mUSD 785.8mUSD 776.1mUSD 764.1mUSD 749.9mUSD 733.2mUSD 714.3mUSD 692.9mUSD 669.3m-1.8%
    Discount factor0.95950.88330.81320.74870.68920.63450.58420.53780.49510.4558-
    Present valueUSD 755.3mUSD 700.7mUSD 639.0mUSD 581.0mUSD 526.7mUSD 475.8mUSD 428.3mUSD 384.1mUSD 343.1mUSD 305.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.007Reported 1.010, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.15%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 17.5bn85.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.9bn14.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.62%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 17.61

    52% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 669.3m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -295.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 722.4m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 12.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 10.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 820.0m
    Equity value
    USD 9.8bn

    Exit at 11.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 25.54

    66% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 21.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 15.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 820.0m
    Equity value
    USD 14.3bn

    Spread between methods: 37%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.62%24.0323.6923.3523.0122.67
    7.62%20.6620.3820.1019.8219.54
    8.62%18.0717.8417.6117.3717.14
    9.62%16.0315.8415.6415.4415.24
    10.62%14.3814.2114.0413.8713.70

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 32.46. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.1%3.1%11.3%
    EBIT margin12.6%10.5%18.6%
    Discount rate-8.6%5.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.