DCF Studio

    NXPI · NMS · Technology

    NXP Semiconductors N.V.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 182.01

    Market price

    USD 257.24

    Implied upside

    -29.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 182.01-29.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 346.29+34.6%
    Market price
    USD 257.24

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn6bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.3bnUSD 16.0bnUSD 17.7bnUSD 19.4bnUSD 21.1bnUSD 22.6bnUSD 24.0bnUSD 25.1bnUSD 26.1bnUSD 26.7bn+7.2%
    EBITUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.3bn+7.2%
    NOPATUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.0bn+7.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+7.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.4bn+10.1%
    Capex, % of revenue7.0%7.3%7.5%7.7%7.9%8.1%8.3%8.6%8.8%9.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -335.8mUSD -280.6mUSD -283.1mUSD -279.2mUSD -268.3mUSD -249.9mUSD -224.2mUSD -191.3mUSD -151.9mUSD -107.0m-11.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bn+7.2%
    Discount factor0.95160.86160.78010.70640.63960.57910.52430.47480.42990.3892-
    Present valueUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 27.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.575Reported 1.858, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.56%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 64.8bn84.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 12.2bn15.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.44%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 182.01

    51% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 5.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 6.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (16.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 5.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    14.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 72.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 28.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 55.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 46.3bn

    Exit at 19.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 346.29

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 180.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 70.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 97.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.3bn
    Equity value
    USD 88.1bn

    Spread between methods: 62%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.44%247.18251.82257.55264.67273.61
    9.44%209.58211.66214.31217.63221.81
    10.44%180.49181.11182.01183.26184.93
    11.44%157.35157.10156.99157.06157.33
    12.44%138.53137.75137.04136.42135.90

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 257.24. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-2.4%8.1%12.0%
    EBIT margin28.7%27.2%37.2%
    Discount rate-10.4%8.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.