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    ODFL · NMS · Industrials

    Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 94.89

    Market price

    USD 176.23

    Implied upside

    -46.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 11.5% of revenue against depreciation of 5.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 21.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 94.89-46.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 165.04-6.3%
    Market price
    USD 176.23

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.5bn+5.2%
    EBITUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bn+5.2%
    NOPATUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bn+5.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 338.8mUSD 365.8mUSD 392.6mUSD 418.5mUSD 443.3mUSD 466.6mUSD 487.8mUSD 506.7mUSD 522.9mUSD 535.9m+5.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -694.2mUSD -720.3mUSD -741.4mUSD -756.9mUSD -766.3mUSD -769.1mUSD -765.0mUSD -754.0mUSD -736.1mUSD -711.6m+0.3%
    Capex, % of revenue11.5%11.1%10.6%10.2%9.7%9.3%8.8%8.4%7.9%7.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -39.4mUSD -36.0mUSD -35.6mUSD -34.6mUSD -33.1mUSD -31.0mUSD -28.3mUSD -25.2mUSD -21.5mUSD -17.4m-8.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 897.9mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bn+8.4%
    Discount factor0.95540.87220.79620.72680.66350.60560.55290.50470.46070.4206-
    Present valueUSD 857.9mUSD 876.9mUSD 886.5mUSD 889.6mUSD 886.1mUSD 876.3mUSD 860.2mUSD 838.3mUSD 811.0mUSD 778.8m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.101Reported 1.151, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.55%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 4598.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 0.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 36.7bn99.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 40.0m0.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.55%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 94.89

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (8.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -175.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.9bn
    ROIC (reported)
    29.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 27.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD -80.1m
    Equity value
    USD 20.1bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 165.04

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 62.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 26.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 34.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD -80.1m
    Equity value
    USD 34.9bn

    Spread between methods: 54%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.55%122.75128.13134.64142.67152.78
    8.55%104.17107.50111.44116.15121.87
    9.55%90.2892.4194.8997.80101.24
    10.55%79.5380.9182.5084.3586.50
    11.55%70.9771.8772.9074.0975.46

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 176.23. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-4.2%5.7%13.4%
    EBIT margin29.4%27.2%48.6%
    Discount rate-9.5%6.4%
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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.