DCF Studio

    OKE · NYQ · Energy

    ONEOK, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 85.19

    Market price

    USD 92.52

    Implied upside

    -7.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 8.3% of revenue against depreciation of 4.2%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 85.19-7.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 101.77+10.0%
    Market price
    USD 92.52

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 44.5bnUSD 42.7bnUSD 41.4bnUSD 40.5bnUSD 39.9bnUSD 39.6bnUSD 39.6bnUSD 40.0bnUSD 40.6bnUSD 41.7bn-0.7%
    EBITUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.2bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.0bn-0.7%
    NOPATUSD 6.8bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.3bn-0.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bn-0.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -3.7bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.6bn-0.2%
    Capex, % of revenue8.3%8.3%8.4%8.4%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.6%8.6%8.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -404.3mUSD 64.7mUSD 49.4mUSD 35.5mUSD 22.7mUSD 10.4mUSD -1.5mUSD -13.3mUSD -25.3mUSD -37.9m-23.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.4bn-0.3%
    Discount factor0.96660.90320.84400.78860.73690.68860.64340.60120.56180.5249-
    Present valueUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 32.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.828Reported 0.744, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.40%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 58.3bn64.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 32.8bn36.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.02%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 85.19

    62% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 4.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 6.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.9bn
    Capitalised
    USD 4.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 101.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 53.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 86.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 32.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 53.3bn

    Exit at 12.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 101.77

    66% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 121.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 63.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 96.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 32.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 63.7bn

    Spread between methods: 18%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.02%159.88171.14187.54212.90256.06
    6.02%113.65117.04121.86128.81139.16
    7.02%84.1884.4885.1986.4688.51
    8.02%63.7662.7261.7660.9060.16
    9.02%49.6048.3147.0245.7244.43

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 92.52. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year14.5%2.2%2.8%
    EBIT margin23.9%19.3%20.2%
    Discount rate-7.0%6.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.