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    OXY · NYQ · Energy

    Occidental Petroleum Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 64.33

    Market price

    USD 60.72

    Implied upside

    +5.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 64.33+5.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 65.27+7.5%
    Market price
    USD 60.72

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn6bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 27.8bnUSD 26.2bnUSD 24.9bnUSD 23.9bnUSD 23.3bnUSD 22.9bnUSD 22.7bnUSD 22.8bnUSD 23.2bnUSD 23.7bn-1.7%
    EBITUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.7bn-1.7%
    NOPATUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bn-1.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 7.9bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.7bn-1.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -6.6bnUSD -6.5bnUSD -6.5bnUSD -6.5bnUSD -6.6bnUSD -6.8bnUSD -7.0bnUSD -7.3bnUSD -7.6bnUSD -8.1bn+2.3%
    Capex, % of revenue23.8%24.9%26.1%27.2%28.4%29.5%30.7%31.8%33.0%34.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -356.8mUSD 94.4mUSD 73.0mUSD 54.5mUSD 37.9mUSD 22.8mUSD 8.6mUSD -5.1mUSD -18.9mUSD -33.2m-23.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.1bn-7.4%
    Discount factor0.97080.91480.86210.81240.76550.72140.67980.64060.60370.5689-
    Present valueUSD 6.0bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 35.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.430Reported 0.149, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.71%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 60.7bn72.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 23.4bn27.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.12%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 64.33

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.4bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 89.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 50.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 85.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 21.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 64.3bn

    Exit at 7.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 65.27

    60% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 90.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 51.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 86.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 21.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 65.3bn

    Spread between methods: 1%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.12%116.10129.68152.19195.60310.77
    5.12%81.4485.5891.61100.86116.32
    6.12%61.6862.7564.3366.6670.17
    7.12%48.8748.7448.7448.9049.31
    8.12%39.8739.2338.5937.9537.33

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 60.72. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-16.2%0.9%0.4%
    EBIT margin37.3%24.1%23.0%
    Discount rate-6.1%6.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.