DCF Studio

    PAH3.DE · GER · Consumer Cyclical

    Porsche Automobil Holding SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 31.73

    Market price

    EUR 28.42

    Implied upside

    +11.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedOnly 3 year(s) of history available to anchor assumptions on.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.3% of revenue against depreciation of 0.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteNo analyst revenue estimates available, so the consensus scenario is unavailable.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 31.73+11.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 2.59-90.9%
    Market price
    EUR 28.42

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 982.1mEUR 697.4mEUR 495.2m-29.0%
    EBITEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 971.2mEUR 689.6mEUR 489.7m-29.0%
    NOPATEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 962.2mEUR 683.3mEUR 485.2m-29.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 475.7kEUR 337.8kEUR 239.9kEUR 170.3kEUR 121.0k-29.0%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -25.6mEUR -18.2mEUR -12.9mEUR -9.2mEUR -6.5m-29.0%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -449.0mEUR -318.8mEUR -226.4mEUR -160.8mEUR -114.2m-29.0%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.0bnEUR 723.2mEUR 513.5mEUR 364.6m-29.0%
    Discount factor0.96820.90770.85100.79780.7479-
    Present valueEUR 1.4bnEUR 924.4mEUR 615.4mEUR 409.7mEUR 272.7m-33.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.973Reported 0.959, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.44%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.52%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 8.7bn55.3% of capital
    Total debtEUR 7.0bn44.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.67%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 31.73

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 364.6m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 485.2m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.9% of NOPAT)
    EUR -140.4m
    Capitalised
    EUR 344.8m
    ROIC (reported)
    8.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 8.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 6.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 10.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 5.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 4.9bn

    Exit at 5.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 2.59

    34% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 2.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 1.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 5.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 5.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 396.0m

    Spread between methods: 170%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.67%59.4366.9277.8095.11127.11
    5.67%40.4643.5447.5553.0160.91
    6.67%28.7830.1131.7333.7536.37
    7.67%20.8421.3721.9722.6723.51
    8.67%15.1015.2315.3515.4815.60

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 28.42. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-29.0%-29.8%-0.8pp
    EBIT margin98.9%94.4%-4.5pp
    Discount rate6.7%7.0%+0.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.