PGR · NYQ · Financial Services
The Progressive Corporation
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Implied value per share
USD 408.10
Market price
USD 233.92
Implied upside
+74.5%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 42.8%
- Payout
- 8%
- Cost of equity
- 6.87%
- Return on equity by the final year
- 20.0%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 30.3bn | USD 35.9bn | USD 41.8bn | USD 47.9bn | USD 54.2bn | USD 60.3bn | USD 66.0bn | USD 71.1bn | USD 75.4bn | USD 78.6bn |
| Return on equity | 40.5% | 38.2% | 35.9% | 33.7% | 31.4% | 29.1% | 26.8% | 24.6% | 22.3% | 20.0% |
| Excess return | USD 10.2bn | USD 11.2bn | USD 12.1bn | USD 12.8bn | USD 13.3bn | USD 13.4bn | USD 13.2bn | USD 12.6bn | USD 11.6bn | USD 10.3bn |
| Present value | USD 9.5bn | USD 9.8bn | USD 10.0bn | USD 9.8bn | USD 9.5bn | USD 9.0bn | USD 8.3bn | USD 7.4bn | USD 6.4bn | USD 5.3bn |
| Book equity | USD 30.3bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 85.1bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 124.6bn |
| Equity value | USD 240.0bn |
| Per share | USD 408.10 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 0.467 | Reported 0.204, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 6.87% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.