DCF Studio

    PLD · NYQ · Real Estate

    Prologis, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 21.08

    Market price

    USD 129.65

    Implied upside

    -83.7%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.00% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 30.66% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 26.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 21.08-83.7%
    Exit multiple
    USD 89.92-30.6%
    Market price
    USD 129.65

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.7bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 12.4bnUSD 13.2bnUSD 14.0bnUSD 14.6bnUSD 15.1bnUSD 15.5bn+6.5%
    EBITUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 5.9bn+6.5%
    NOPATUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.7bn+6.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bn+6.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.7bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.9bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.8bnUSD -5.2bnUSD -5.6bnUSD -6.0bnUSD -6.3bn+10.0%
    Capex, % of revenue30.7%31.8%32.9%34.1%35.2%36.3%37.4%38.6%39.7%40.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -7.4mUSD 161.2mUSD 161.3mUSD 158.1mUSD 151.4mUSD 141.1mUSD 127.0mUSD 109.5mUSD 88.7mUSD 65.2m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.1bn+3.0%
    Discount factor0.95790.87900.80660.74020.67920.62330.57190.52480.48160.4419-
    Present valueUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.8bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 26.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.197Reported 1.294, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.96%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 126.0bn77.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 35.7bn22.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate4.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.98%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 21.08

    52% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 4.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 5.7bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.6bn
    Capitalised
    USD 4.1bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 64.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 28.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 54.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 34.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 20.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 89.92

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 213.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 94.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 120.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 34.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 86.0bn

    Spread between methods: 124%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.98%40.0539.0838.1137.1436.17
    7.98%30.1329.3228.5227.7226.91
    8.98%22.4321.7621.0820.4119.73
    9.98%16.3015.7315.1514.5814.00
    10.98%11.3010.8110.329.829.33

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 129.65. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year13.7%5.8%19.1%
    Discount rate-9.0%3.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.