DCF Studio

    PLTR · NMS · Technology

    Palantir Technologies Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 12.37

    Market price

    USD 178.34

    Implied upside

    -93.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 6.9% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.99% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.09% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 292.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 12.37-93.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 22.09-87.6%
    Market price
    USD 178.34

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.7bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 14.5bnUSD 20.0bnUSD 26.5bnUSD 33.4bnUSD 40.2bnUSD 46.0bnUSD 49.9bnUSD 51.1bn+25.3%
    EBITUSD 660.6mUSD 990.9mUSD 1.4bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bn+25.3%
    NOPATUSD 631.9mUSD 947.8mUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bn+25.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 73.3mUSD 109.9mUSD 158.4mUSD 218.8mUSD 289.2mUSD 365.1mUSD 439.3mUSD 502.4mUSD 544.8mUSD 558.4m+25.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -73.3mUSD -134.2mUSD -228.3mUSD -363.6mUSD -544.5mUSD -768.0mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bn+41.5%
    Capex, % of revenue1.1%1.3%1.6%1.8%2.1%2.3%2.5%2.8%3.0%3.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -401.8mUSD -602.7mUSD -796.8mUSD -993.2mUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.0bnUSD -697.2mUSD -224.0m-6.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 230.1mUSD 320.8mUSD 498.8mUSD 748.1mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.5bn+35.2%
    Discount factor0.94980.85680.77300.69730.62900.56750.51190.46180.41660.3758-
    Present valueUSD 218.5mUSD 274.9mUSD 385.6mUSD 521.6mUSD 679.2mUSD 849.0mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.409Reported 1.610, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.85%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 428.6bn99.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 229.3m0.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate4.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.85%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 12.37

    69% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (23.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.7bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    10.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 45.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 24.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD -6.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 31.7bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 22.09

    85% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 111.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 42.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 49.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD -6.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 56.7bn

    Spread between methods: 56%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.85%15.9415.7615.5915.4115.24
    9.85%14.0913.9413.8013.6513.50
    10.85%12.6212.4912.3712.2412.11
    11.85%11.4211.3111.2011.0910.98
    12.85%10.4310.3310.2410.1410.05

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 178.34. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year32.9%27.6%74.1%
    Discount rate-10.9%3.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.