DCF Studio

    PNR · NYQ · Industrials

    Pentair plc

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 97.50

    Market price

    USD 70.56

    Implied upside

    +38.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 97.50+38.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 103.84+47.2%
    Market price
    USD 70.56

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.8bn+10.3%
    EBITUSD 777.2mUSD 920.4mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bn+10.3%
    NOPATUSD 676.4mUSD 800.9mUSD 932.5mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+10.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 111.6mUSD 132.1mUSD 153.8mUSD 176.0mUSD 197.9mUSD 218.6mUSD 237.1mUSD 252.5mUSD 263.8mUSD 270.4m+10.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -74.9mUSD -103.9mUSD -138.8mUSD -179.2mUSD -224.4mUSD -273.2mUSD -323.8mUSD -374.0mUSD -421.3mUSD -463.2m+22.4%
    Capex, % of revenue1.8%2.2%2.5%2.8%3.1%3.4%3.8%4.1%4.4%4.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 28.8mUSD -174.9mUSD -184.7mUSD -189.0mUSD -186.5mUSD -176.2mUSD -157.6mUSD -130.8mUSD -96.5mUSD -56.1m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 741.8mUSD 654.2mUSD 762.8mUSD 874.9mUSD 986.9mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bn+7.2%
    Discount factor0.95990.88440.81480.75070.69170.63730.58720.54100.49840.4592-
    Present valueUSD 712.0mUSD 578.6mUSD 621.5mUSD 656.8mUSD 682.6mUSD 697.6mUSD 700.7mUSD 691.7mUSD 670.7mUSD 638.6m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 6.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.007Reported 1.010, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.15%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 13.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 11.3bn86.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.8bn13.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.54%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 97.50

    63% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (18.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -324.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    13.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 24.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 17.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 16.1bn

    Exit at 12.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 103.84

    65% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.2bn

    Spread between methods: 6%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.54%140.37146.50154.36164.68178.70
    7.54%113.55116.51120.23124.94131.03
    8.54%94.4795.8197.5099.63102.35
    9.54%80.2280.6881.3082.1383.22
    10.54%69.2169.1669.1969.3269.57

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 70.56. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.4%8.9%5.2%
    EBIT margin22.3%19.2%14.3%
    Discount rate-8.5%10.4%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.