DCF Studio

    PODD · NMS · Healthcare

    Insulet Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 54.68

    Market price

    USD 153.61

    Implied upside

    -64.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 8.3% of revenue against depreciation of 4.1%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 54.68-64.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 136.74-11.0%
    Market price
    USD 153.61

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -47m170m387mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.6bn+8.0%
    EBITUSD 396.5mUSD 450.3mUSD 505.2mUSD 559.8mUSD 612.6mUSD 661.8mUSD 705.8mUSD 743.0mUSD 771.9mUSD 791.2m+8.0%
    NOPATUSD 313.3mUSD 355.8mUSD 399.1mUSD 442.3mUSD 483.9mUSD 522.8mUSD 557.6mUSD 587.0mUSD 609.8mUSD 625.0m+8.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 134.5mUSD 152.8mUSD 171.4mUSD 189.9mUSD 207.8mUSD 224.5mUSD 239.4mUSD 252.1mUSD 261.8mUSD 268.4m+8.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -271.6mUSD -302.3mUSD -332.3mUSD -360.6mUSD -386.2mUSD -408.2mUSD -425.7mUSD -438.0mUSD -444.5mUSD -444.8m+5.6%
    Capex, % of revenue8.3%8.1%7.9%7.8%7.6%7.4%7.3%7.1%6.9%6.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -222.7mUSD -171.7mUSD -175.1mUSD -174.1mUSD -168.2mUSD -157.0mUSD -140.4mUSD -118.6mUSD -92.1mUSD -61.5m-13.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -46.5mUSD 34.5mUSD 63.1mUSD 97.5mUSD 137.3mUSD 182.1mUSD 230.9mUSD 282.5mUSD 335.1mUSD 387.1m-
    Discount factor0.95840.88040.80880.74300.68250.62700.57590.52910.48600.4464-
    Present valueUSD -44.6mUSD 30.4mUSD 51.1mUSD 72.4mUSD 93.7mUSD 114.2mUSD 133.0mUSD 149.4mUSD 162.9mUSD 172.8m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 935.4m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.034Reported 1.050, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.27%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 8.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 10.7bn91.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 949.2m8.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.86%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 54.68

    78% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 387.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 625.0m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -176.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 448.7m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 7.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 3.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 4.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 233.1m
    Equity value
    USD 3.9bn

    Exit at 19.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 136.74

    91% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 10.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 233.1m
    Equity value
    USD 9.8bn

    Spread between methods: 86%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.86%86.9187.8489.2491.3094.30
    7.86%69.2168.7768.4568.2968.33
    8.86%56.6655.6754.6853.6952.70
    9.86%48.2447.3946.5545.7144.86
    10.86%41.5040.7740.0539.3238.60

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 153.61. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year27.5%9.2%23.8%
    EBIT margin17.5%12.1%26.5%
    Discount rate-8.9%5.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.