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    Implied value per share

    USD 216.01

    Market price

    USD 333.24

    Implied upside

    -35.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 9.04% of revenue against depreciation and amortisation of 22.66%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 22.66% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 21.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 216.01-35.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 369.06+10.7%
    Market price
    USD 333.24

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 7.9bnUSD 8.1bn+5.2%
    EBITUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bn+5.2%
    NOPATUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bn+5.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+5.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bn+8.8%
    Capex, % of revenue22.7%23.6%24.4%25.3%26.2%27.1%28.0%28.9%29.8%30.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 4.1mUSD 5.7mUSD 5.6mUSD 5.4mUSD 5.2mUSD 4.9mUSD 4.5mUSD 4.0mUSD 3.4mUSD 2.8m+4.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.3bn+3.1%
    Discount factor0.96100.88740.81950.75680.69890.64540.59600.55040.50830.4694-
    Present valueUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 20.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.914Reported 0.871, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.76%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 7.4x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 62.3bn85.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 10.3bn14.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.29%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 216.01

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (16.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -647.7m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    15.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 58.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 27.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 47.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 38.0bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 369.06

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 116.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 54.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 74.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 64.9bn

    Spread between methods: 52%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.29%315.65333.07355.57385.46426.72
    7.29%251.26260.15271.24285.33303.57
    8.29%205.89210.42216.01222.97231.71
    9.29%172.20174.35177.03180.37184.56
    10.29%146.22146.98148.02149.41151.21

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 333.24. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.9%5.3%9.6%
    EBIT margin51.9%49.2%70.4%
    Discount rate-8.3%6.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.