PST.MI · MIL · Industrials
Poste Italiane S.p.A.
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
EUR 72.99
Market price
EUR 26.89
Implied upside
+171.4%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 1.1x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 3.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 25.2bn | EUR 27.3bn | EUR 29.6bn | EUR 32.1bn | EUR 34.7bn | +8.4% |
| EBIT | EUR 3.8bn | EUR 4.1bn | EUR 4.4bn | EUR 4.8bn | EUR 5.2bn | +8.4% |
| NOPAT | EUR 2.8bn | EUR 3.1bn | EUR 3.3bn | EUR 3.6bn | EUR 3.9bn | +8.4% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | EUR 1.1bn | EUR 1.2bn | EUR 1.3bn | EUR 1.4bn | EUR 1.5bn | +8.4% |
| Less capital expenditure | EUR -1.1bn | EUR -1.2bn | EUR -1.3bn | EUR -1.4bn | EUR -1.6bn | +8.4% |
| Less increase in working capital | EUR 1.9bn | EUR 2.1bn | EUR 2.2bn | EUR 2.4bn | EUR 2.6bn | -8.4% |
| Free cashflow to firm | EUR 4.7bn | EUR 5.1bn | EUR 5.5bn | EUR 6.0bn | EUR 6.5bn | +8.4% |
| Discount factor | 0.9615 | 0.8889 | 0.8217 | 0.7596 | 0.7023 | - |
| Present value | EUR 4.5bn | EUR 4.5bn | EUR 4.5bn | EUR 4.5bn | EUR 4.5bn | +0.2% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | EUR 22.7bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.845 | Reported 0.769, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 9.69% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | EUR 34.7bn | 76.7% of capital |
| Total debt | EUR 10.5bn | 23.3% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 8.17% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
65% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- EUR 6.5bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- EUR 4.3bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.0% of NOPAT)
- EUR -937.1m
- Capitalised
- EUR 3.3bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 11.4%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 60.2bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 42.3bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 64.9bn
- Less net debt
- EUR -29.6bn
- Equity value
- EUR 94.5bn
Exit at 3.0x EBITDA
38% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 20.1bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 14.1bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 36.8bn
- Less net debt
- EUR -29.6bn
- Equity value
- EUR 66.4bn
Spread between methods: 35%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 6.17% | 88.68 | 91.93 | 96.04 | 101.41 | 108.75 |
| 7.17% | 78.26 | 80.00 | 82.09 | 84.65 | 87.88 |
| 8.17% | 70.92 | 71.88 | 72.99 | 74.30 | 75.86 |
| 9.17% | 65.46 | 65.98 | 66.57 | 67.24 | 68.01 |
| 10.17% | 61.22 | 61.49 | 61.79 | 62.11 | 62.46 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 26.89. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 8.4% | -17.5% | -25.8pp |
| EBIT margin | 15.0% | -4.1% | -19.1pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.