DCF Studio

    PTC · NMS · Technology

    PTC Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 64.88

    Market price

    USD 194.31

    Implied upside

    -66.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.88% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 5.99% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 64.88-66.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 122.90-36.8%
    Market price
    USD 194.31

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m308m617mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bn+4.4%
    EBITUSD 741.3mUSD 788.5mUSD 834.9mUSD 880.1mUSD 923.4mUSD 964.3mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn+4.4%
    NOPATUSD 587.9mUSD 625.3mUSD 662.1mUSD 697.9mUSD 732.3mUSD 764.8mUSD 795.0mUSD 822.6mUSD 847.1mUSD 868.3m+4.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 163.1mUSD 173.5mUSD 183.7mUSD 193.7mUSD 203.2mUSD 212.2mUSD 220.6mUSD 228.2mUSD 235.0mUSD 240.9m+4.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -163.1mUSD -191.0mUSD -220.7mUSD -252.1mUSD -284.9mUSD -318.9mUSD -353.7mUSD -389.0mUSD -424.2mUSD -459.1m+12.2%
    Capex, % of revenue6.0%6.6%7.2%7.8%8.4%9.0%9.6%10.2%10.8%11.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 5.4mUSD -63.0mUSD -61.9mUSD -60.2mUSD -57.8mUSD -54.6mUSD -50.8mUSD -46.4mUSD -41.3mUSD -35.6m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 593.3mUSD 544.9mUSD 563.3mUSD 579.3mUSD 592.8mUSD 603.4mUSD 611.0mUSD 615.5mUSD 616.7mUSD 614.5m+0.4%
    Discount factor0.95970.88380.81390.74960.69030.63570.58550.53920.49660.4573-
    Present valueUSD 569.4mUSD 481.5mUSD 458.4mUSD 434.2mUSD 409.2mUSD 383.6mUSD 357.7mUSD 331.9mUSD 306.2mUSD 281.0m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.940Reported 0.910, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.87%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 13.0x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 21.1bn93.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.4bn6.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.58%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 64.88

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 614.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 868.3m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (25.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -218.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 650.1m
    ROIC (reported)
    10.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 11.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 9.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 7.8bn

    Exit at 19.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 122.90

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 26.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 12.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 14.8bn

    Spread between methods: 62%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.58%94.9697.12100.02103.97109.50
    7.58%77.6878.2179.0080.1481.77
    8.58%65.3165.0564.8864.8264.90
    9.58%56.0255.3854.7554.1453.55
    10.58%49.2248.5647.9047.2546.59

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 194.31. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year12.3%3.9%17.4%
    EBIT margin36.4%27.2%72.8%
    Discount rate-8.6%4.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.