DCF Studio

    PUIG.MC · MCE · Consumer Defensive

    Puig Brands, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 31.11

    Market price

    EUR 16.86

    Implied upside

    +84.5%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 31.11+84.5%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 27.12+60.9%
    Market price
    EUR 16.86

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 5.6bnEUR 6.3bnEUR 7.0bnEUR 7.8bnEUR 8.8bn+11.7%
    EBITEUR 887.6mEUR 991.3mEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.4bn+11.7%
    NOPATEUR 692.6mEUR 773.6mEUR 863.9mEUR 964.8mEUR 1.1bn+11.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 241.0mEUR 269.1mEUR 300.6mEUR 335.7mEUR 374.9m+11.7%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -228.7mEUR -255.4mEUR -285.2mEUR -318.5mEUR -355.8m+11.7%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 50.0mEUR 55.8mEUR 62.4mEUR 69.6mEUR 77.8m-11.7%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 755.0mEUR 843.1mEUR 941.6mEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bn+11.7%
    Discount factor0.96480.89810.83590.77810.7243-
    Present valueEUR 728.4mEUR 757.2mEUR 787.1mEUR 818.3mEUR 850.7m+4.0%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.593Reported 0.393, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.06%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 9.5bn86.9% of capital
    Total debtEUR 1.4bn13.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate22.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.43%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 31.11

    78% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (18.2% of NOPAT)
    EUR -206.5m
    Capitalised
    EUR 927.6m
    ROIC (reported)
    13.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 19.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 14.0bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 17.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 383.4m
    Equity value
    EUR 17.5bn

    Exit at 9.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 27.12

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 16.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 11.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 15.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 383.4m
    Equity value
    EUR 15.3bn

    Spread between methods: 14%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.43%43.1646.9752.0659.2170.04
    6.43%34.3736.4038.9242.1746.50
    7.43%28.5529.7131.1132.8134.92
    8.43%24.4025.1125.9226.8828.03
    9.43%21.2921.7322.2322.7923.44

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 16.86. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year11.7%-1.7%-13.4pp
    EBIT margin15.8%8.3%-7.5pp
    Discount rate7.4%11.7%+4.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.