DCF Studio

    PWR · NYQ · Industrials

    Quanta Services, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 174.53

    Market price

    USD 621.18

    Implied upside

    -71.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 39.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 174.53-71.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 413.06-33.5%
    Market price
    USD 621.18

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 41.5bnUSD 46.4bnUSD 51.3bnUSD 56.1bnUSD 60.7bnUSD 65.1bnUSD 68.9bnUSD 72.3bnUSD 74.9bnUSD 76.8bn+7.1%
    EBITUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bn+7.1%
    NOPATUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bn+7.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bn+7.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -962.4mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bn+10.2%
    Capex, % of revenue2.3%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.8%2.9%3.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -1.9bnUSD -696.0mUSD -701.2mUSD -690.8mUSD -663.3mUSD -618.0mUSD -554.6mUSD -473.9mUSD -377.5mUSD -267.7m-19.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 269.9mUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bn+31.4%
    Discount factor0.95530.87180.79560.72610.66270.60480.55190.50370.45970.4195-
    Present valueUSD 257.8mUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 13.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.190Reported 1.284, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.93%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 6.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 93.6bn93.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.4bn6.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.58%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 174.53

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.1bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 45.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 26.4bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 413.06

    81% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 131.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 55.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 68.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 62.5bn

    Spread between methods: 81%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.58%256.01254.29252.96252.16252.07
    8.58%211.16207.75204.34200.93197.52
    9.58%180.31177.42174.53171.64168.75
    10.58%155.53153.05150.57148.10145.62
    11.58%135.22133.08130.93128.79126.64

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 621.18. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year18.6%10.4%26.7%
    EBIT margin5.6%5.3%17.9%
    Discount rate-9.6%4.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.