PYPL · NMS · Financial Services
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck
Implied value per share
USD 72.13
Market price
USD 58.78
Implied upside
+22.7%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 20.9%
- Payout
- 2%
- Cost of equity
- 10.02%
- Return on equity by the final year
- 20.0%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 20.3bn | USD 24.0bn | USD 27.9bn | USD 32.0bn | USD 36.2bn | USD 40.3bn | USD 44.1bn | USD 47.5bn | USD 50.3bn | USD 52.5bn |
| Return on equity | 20.8% | 20.8% | 20.7% | 20.6% | 20.5% | 20.4% | 20.3% | 20.2% | 20.1% | 20.0% |
| Excess return | USD 2.2bn | USD 2.6bn | USD 3.0bn | USD 3.4bn | USD 3.8bn | USD 4.2bn | USD 4.5bn | USD 4.8bn | USD 5.1bn | USD 5.2bn |
| Present value | USD 2.0bn | USD 2.1bn | USD 2.2bn | USD 2.3bn | USD 2.3bn | USD 2.4bn | USD 2.3bn | USD 2.2bn | USD 2.1bn | USD 2.0bn |
| Book equity | USD 20.3bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 22.1bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 27.5bn |
| Equity value | USD 69.8bn |
| Per share | USD 72.13 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 1.212 | Reported 1.316, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 10.02% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.