DCF Studio

    QCOM · NMS · Technology

    QUALCOMM Incorporated

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 126.71

    Market price

    USD 162.08

    Implied upside

    -21.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 126.71-21.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 151.00-6.8%
    Market price
    USD 162.08

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn7bn14bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 42.9bnUSD 44.9bnUSD 46.9bnUSD 48.8bnUSD 50.7bnUSD 52.5bnUSD 54.3bnUSD 55.9bnUSD 57.5bnUSD 58.9bn+3.6%
    EBITUSD 12.3bnUSD 12.8bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.9bnUSD 14.5bnUSD 15.0bnUSD 15.5bnUSD 16.0bnUSD 16.4bnUSD 16.8bn+3.6%
    NOPATUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.8bnUSD 12.3bnUSD 12.9bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.8bnUSD 14.3bnUSD 14.7bnUSD 15.1bnUSD 15.5bn+3.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bn+3.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.9bn+10.8%
    Capex, % of revenue3.6%4.0%4.3%4.6%5.0%5.3%5.7%6.0%6.3%6.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 219.6mUSD -312.2mUSD -307.7mUSD -301.4mUSD -293.2mUSD -283.0mUSD -270.9mUSD -256.8mUSD -240.9mUSD -223.2m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 11.8bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 12.0bnUSD 12.4bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.0bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.5bnUSD 13.7bnUSD 13.9bn+1.8%
    Discount factor0.95010.85770.77420.69890.63090.56950.51410.46410.41890.3781-
    Present valueUSD 11.2bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 5.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 78.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.511Reported 1.762, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.28%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 18.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 173.1bn92.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 14.8bn7.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate7.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.78%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 126.71

    46% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 13.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 15.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (9.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.4bn
    Capitalised
    USD 14.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    27.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 174.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 66.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 144.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 140.0bn

    Exit at 12.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 151.00

    54% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 245.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 92.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 171.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 166.9bn

    Spread between methods: 17%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.78%157.48161.66166.59172.46179.56
    9.78%138.18140.83143.91147.53151.81
    10.78%123.06124.75126.71128.98131.64
    11.78%110.90111.97113.21114.64116.31
    12.78%100.90101.56102.33103.22104.26

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 162.08. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.1%2.9%6.0%
    EBIT margin35.9%28.6%36.3%
    Discount rate-10.8%9.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.