DCF Studio

    QIA.DE · GER · Healthcare

    Qiagen N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 23.72

    Market price

    EUR 38.41

    Implied upside

    -38.2%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · USD model at 0.8704

    AdjustedReports in USD, trades in EUR. Modelled in USD, converted at the end.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 23.72-38.2%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 27.72-27.8%
    Market price
    EUR 38.41

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m184m369mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bn-0.8%
    EBITUSD 438.3mUSD 434.7mUSD 431.2mUSD 427.7mUSD 424.3m-0.8%
    NOPATUSD 354.9mUSD 352.1mUSD 349.2mUSD 346.4mUSD 343.6m-0.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 205.9mUSD 204.2mUSD 202.6mUSD 200.9mUSD 199.3m-0.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -175.3mUSD -173.9mUSD -172.5mUSD -171.1mUSD -169.7m-0.8%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -16.9mUSD -16.8mUSD -16.6mUSD -16.5mUSD -16.4m-0.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 368.6mUSD 365.6mUSD 362.7mUSD 359.8mUSD 356.8m-0.8%
    Discount factor0.97050.91410.86100.81100.7639-
    Present valueUSD 357.8mUSD 334.2mUSD 312.3mUSD 291.8mUSD 272.6m-6.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 1.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.749Reported 0.626, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.10%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.60%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationUSD 7.9bn81.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.8bn18.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.17%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 27.25

    75% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 356.8m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 343.6m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (34.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -118.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 225.4m
    ROIC (reported)
    7.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 6.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 4.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 6.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 713.5m
    Equity value
    USD 5.7bn

    Exit at 12.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 31.85

    79% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 7.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 7.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 713.5m
    Equity value
    USD 6.6bn

    Spread between methods: 16%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.17%45.9751.3559.8975.66114.89
    5.17%33.2135.0237.4841.0346.65
    6.17%25.8926.5027.2528.2129.50
    7.17%21.1521.2621.3821.5121.65
    8.17%18.2118.2818.3518.4218.49

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 44.13. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-0.8%7.2%+8.0pp
    EBIT margin21.1%32.9%+11.7pp
    Discount rate6.2%4.8%-1.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.