DCF Studio

    RAND.AS · AMS · Industrials

    Randstad N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 24.74

    Market price

    EUR 36.34

    Implied upside

    -31.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.37% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 24.74-31.9%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 30.25-16.8%
    Market price
    EUR 36.34

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m313m626mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 21.7bnEUR 20.5bnEUR 19.3bnEUR 18.2bnEUR 17.2bn-5.8%
    EBITEUR 656.3mEUR 618.5mEUR 582.9mEUR 549.4mEUR 517.8m-5.8%
    NOPATEUR 495.3mEUR 466.8mEUR 439.9mEUR 414.6mEUR 390.8m-5.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 278.4mEUR 262.4mEUR 247.3mEUR 233.0mEUR 219.6m-5.8%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -217.5mEUR -205.0mEUR -193.2mEUR -182.1mEUR -171.6m-5.8%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 69.4mEUR 65.4mEUR 61.7mEUR 58.1mEUR 54.8m+5.8%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 625.7mEUR 589.7mEUR 555.7mEUR 523.7mEUR 493.6m-5.8%
    Discount factor0.95800.87910.80670.74030.6794-
    Present valueEUR 599.4mEUR 518.4mEUR 448.3mEUR 387.7mEUR 335.3m-13.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 2.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.987Reported 0.981, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.62%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.60%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 6.4bn76.9% of capital
    Total debtEUR 1.9bn23.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate24.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.97%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 24.74

    61% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 493.6m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 438.4m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.5% of NOPAT)
    EUR -107.3m
    Capitalised
    EUR 331.1m
    ROIC (reported)
    10.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 5.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 3.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 5.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 4.3bn

    Exit at 9.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 30.25

    66% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 6.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 4.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 6.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 5.3bn

    Spread between methods: 20%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.97%34.1835.4236.9238.7841.14
    7.97%28.3829.0129.7330.5931.62
    8.97%24.1124.4024.7425.1125.54
    9.97%20.8220.9421.0521.1721.30
    10.97%18.3918.4618.5318.6118.68

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 36.34. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-5.8%2.6%+8.3pp
    EBIT margin3.0%4.2%+1.2pp
    Discount rate9.0%7.0%-1.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.