DCF Studio

    REG · NMS · Real Estate

    Regency Centers Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 21.77

    Market price

    USD 75.58

    Implied upside

    -71.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.00% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 26.49% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 20.0x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 21.77-71.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 66.03-12.6%
    Market price
    USD 75.58

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m296m592mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bn+3.4%
    EBITUSD 600.2mUSD 625.8mUSD 651.0mUSD 675.9mUSD 700.2mUSD 723.9mUSD 746.8mUSD 768.7mUSD 789.7mUSD 809.4m+3.4%
    NOPATUSD 600.2mUSD 625.8mUSD 651.0mUSD 675.9mUSD 700.2mUSD 723.9mUSD 746.8mUSD 768.7mUSD 789.7mUSD 809.4m+3.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 404.9mUSD 422.1mUSD 439.2mUSD 455.9mUSD 472.4mUSD 488.3mUSD 503.7mUSD 518.6mUSD 532.7mUSD 546.0m+3.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -433.1mUSD -470.3mUSD -508.8mUSD -548.5mUSD -589.3mUSD -630.9mUSD -673.2mUSD -716.0mUSD -759.1mUSD -802.4m+7.1%
    Capex, % of revenue26.5%27.6%28.7%29.8%30.9%32.0%33.1%34.2%35.3%36.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 10.8mUSD 9.3mUSD 9.2mUSD 9.0mUSD 8.8mUSD 8.6mUSD 8.3mUSD 8.0mUSD 7.6mUSD 7.1m+4.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 582.7mUSD 586.8mUSD 590.5mUSD 592.3mUSD 592.2mUSD 589.9mUSD 585.6mUSD 579.3mUSD 570.7mUSD 560.2m-0.4%
    Discount factor0.96270.89230.82700.76650.71050.65850.61030.56570.52430.4860-
    Present valueUSD 561.0mUSD 523.6mUSD 488.4mUSD 454.0mUSD 420.7mUSD 388.5mUSD 357.4mUSD 327.7mUSD 299.2mUSD 272.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 4.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.877Reported 0.817, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.61%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.00%Risk-free + 111bp, the spread for a BBB rating at 2.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 14.1bn72.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 5.3bn27.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate0.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.89%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 21.77

    56% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 560.2m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 809.4m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (31.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -256.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 553.0m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 10.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 9.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 4.0bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 66.03

    76% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 27.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 13.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 17.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 5.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 12.0bn

    Spread between methods: 101%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.89%40.9640.0039.0338.0737.10
    6.89%30.7029.9229.1428.3727.59
    7.89%23.0622.4221.7721.1320.49
    8.89%17.1516.6116.0715.5314.99
    9.89%12.4511.9911.5311.0710.61

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 75.58. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year8.3%3.6%12.4%
    EBIT margin38.6%36.7%75.6%
    Discount rate-7.9%4.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.