DCF Studio

    REGN · NMS · Healthcare

    Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 1445.46

    Market price

    USD 961.26

    Implied upside

    +50.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 8.8% of revenue against depreciation of 3.3%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 22.0x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 1445.46+50.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 1620.21+68.6%
    Market price
    USD 961.26

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn4bn8bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 17.6bnUSD 20.0bnUSD 22.5bnUSD 25.0bnUSD 27.4bnUSD 29.6bnUSD 31.6bnUSD 33.3bnUSD 34.6bnUSD 35.4bn+8.1%
    EBITUSD 5.4bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.0bn+8.1%
    NOPATUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 9.9bn+8.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 581.2mUSD 661.3mUSD 743.1mUSD 824.6mUSD 903.4mUSD 976.9mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn+8.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.0bn+7.5%
    Capex, % of revenue8.8%8.7%8.7%8.6%8.6%8.5%8.5%8.4%8.4%8.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -996.1mUSD -840.4mUSD -650.5mUSD -432.1m-13.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.4bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.7bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.7bn+14.1%
    Discount factor0.96890.90970.85410.80190.75280.70680.66360.62300.58490.5491-
    Present valueUSD 2.3bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 36.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.394Reported 0.095, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.56%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 84.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 1.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 99.4bn97.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.7bn2.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate9.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.51%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 1445.46

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 7.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 10.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 8.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 208.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 114.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 151.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -5.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 157.0bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 1620.21

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 242.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 133.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 170.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -5.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 176.0bn

    Spread between methods: 11%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.51%2285.252546.132941.523604.844932.92
    5.51%1689.631797.321943.852152.402469.19
    6.51%1333.811382.481445.471528.891642.92
    7.51%1098.001119.721147.441183.131229.78
    8.51%930.74938.89949.69963.87982.44

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 961.26. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.6%9.5%4.2%
    EBIT margin38.9%30.9%20.8%
    Discount rate-6.5%8.4%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.