DCF Studio

    ROK · NYQ · Industrials

    Rockwell Automation, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 134.74

    Market price

    USD 440.16

    Implied upside

    -69.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    Current EV/EBITDA of 29.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 134.74-69.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 239.86-45.5%
    Market price
    USD 440.16

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 12.0bnUSD 12.4bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.1bn+4.1%
    EBITUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bn+4.1%
    NOPATUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn+4.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 307.4mUSD 325.2mUSD 342.7mUSD 359.8mUSD 376.2mUSD 391.8mUSD 406.5mUSD 420.0mUSD 432.2mUSD 443.0m+4.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -193.6mUSD -225.0mUSD -258.5mUSD -293.7mUSD -330.5mUSD -368.5mUSD -407.6mUSD -447.2mUSD -487.1mUSD -526.8m+11.8%
    Capex, % of revenue2.1%2.3%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.6%3.8%4.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -192.7mUSD -141.1mUSD -138.7mUSD -134.9mUSD -129.9mUSD -123.5mUSD -115.9mUSD -106.9mUSD -96.8mUSD -85.5m-8.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bn+3.8%
    Discount factor0.95280.86490.78520.71280.64710.58740.53320.48410.43940.3989-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 956.5mUSD 896.9mUSD 837.7mUSD 779.4mUSD 722.1mUSD 666.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 9.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.345Reported 1.515, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.58%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 9.1x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 49.0bn93.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.6bn6.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.16%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 134.74

    50% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (14.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -293.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    17.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 23.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 15.2bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 239.86

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 52.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 21.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 30.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 3.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 27.1bn

    Spread between methods: 56%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.16%181.09185.79191.53198.60207.44
    9.16%153.30155.81158.86162.58167.15
    10.16%131.99133.22134.74136.62138.94
    11.16%115.14115.59116.21117.02118.07
    12.16%101.49101.46101.53101.70102.01

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 440.16. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.4%4.6%19.2%
    EBIT margin18.7%16.8%50.0%
    Discount rate-10.2%5.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.