DCF Studio

    ROP · NMS · Technology

    Roper Technologies, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 355.42

    Market price

    USD 479.54

    Implied upside

    -25.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 355.42-25.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 529.61+10.4%
    Market price
    USD 479.54

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.6bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.3bnUSD 12.6bn+4.4%
    EBITUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bn+4.4%
    NOPATUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bn+4.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+4.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -127.6mUSD -231.3mUSD -346.1mUSD -471.3mUSD -606.1mUSD -749.6mUSD -900.4mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.4bn+30.3%
    Capex, % of revenue1.5%2.5%3.6%4.6%5.7%6.7%7.8%8.8%9.9%11.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -84.9mUSD -69.0mUSD -67.8mUSD -65.9mUSD -63.3mUSD -59.9mUSD -55.8mUSD -51.0mUSD -45.5mUSD -39.4m-8.2%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bn+0.7%
    Discount factor0.96440.89680.83400.77560.72130.67080.62380.58020.53950.5017-
    Present valueUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 20.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.774Reported 0.662, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.17%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.44%Risk-free + 55bp, the spread for a AA rating at 6.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.8%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 47.4bn83.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 9.3bn16.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.53%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 355.42

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (33.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.3bn
    Capitalised
    USD 2.6bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 53.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 26.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 47.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 38.5bn

    Exit at 18.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 529.61

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 91.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 45.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 66.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 9.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 57.3bn

    Spread between methods: 39%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.53%542.22539.03537.42538.33543.62
    6.53%436.36429.58422.81416.03409.25
    7.53%366.53360.97355.42349.86344.31
    8.53%313.12308.48303.85299.21294.57
    9.53%270.98267.05263.12259.19255.26

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 479.54. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year13.7%4.8%7.9%
    EBIT margin28.4%28.3%39.7%
    Discount rate-7.5%5.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.