DCF Studio

    RSG · NYQ · Industrials

    Republic Services, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 139.49

    Market price

    USD 245.97

    Implied upside

    -43.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 139.49-43.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 233.63-5.0%
    Market price
    USD 245.97

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 17.5bnUSD 18.3bnUSD 19.2bnUSD 20.0bnUSD 20.8bnUSD 21.5bnUSD 22.2bnUSD 22.9bnUSD 23.6bnUSD 24.2bn+3.7%
    EBITUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bn+3.7%
    NOPATUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bn+3.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bn+3.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.4bnUSD -3.6bn+7.0%
    Capex, % of revenue11.2%11.6%12.0%12.4%12.8%13.2%13.6%14.0%14.4%14.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -32.6mUSD -31.2mUSD -30.7mUSD -30.0mUSD -29.2mUSD -28.1mUSD -26.8mUSD -25.3mUSD -23.6mUSD -21.7m-4.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.8bn+0.6%
    Discount factor0.96760.90600.84840.79440.74380.69640.65210.61060.57170.5353-
    Present valueUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 20.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.547Reported 0.324, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.21%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 5.8x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 74.9bn84.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 13.8bn15.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.80%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 139.49

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -926.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.9bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 68.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 36.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 57.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 43.5bn

    Exit at 16.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 233.63

    76% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 123.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 66.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 86.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 72.9bn

    Spread between methods: 50%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.80%236.70258.57290.66341.48432.66
    5.80%172.24180.71192.22208.38232.23
    6.80%132.10135.26139.49145.20153.08
    7.80%104.71105.45106.59108.24110.59
    8.80%84.8384.3984.0883.9484.01

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 245.97. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year7.1%3.8%9.3%
    EBIT margin20.1%19.2%30.3%
    Discount rate-6.8%5.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.