S58.SI · SES · Industrials
SATS Ltd.
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD 17.44
Market price
SGD 3.81
Implied upside
+357.7%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 9.5bn | SGD 14.3bn | SGD 21.4bn | SGD 32.1bn | SGD 48.2bn | +50.0% |
| EBIT | SGD 446.1m | SGD 669.1m | SGD 1.0bn | SGD 1.5bn | SGD 2.3bn | +50.0% |
| NOPAT | SGD 334.6m | SGD 501.8m | SGD 752.8m | SGD 1.1bn | SGD 1.7bn | +50.0% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 941.1m | SGD 1.4bn | SGD 2.1bn | SGD 3.2bn | SGD 4.8bn | +50.0% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -467.2m | SGD -700.9m | SGD -1.1bn | SGD -1.6bn | SGD -2.4bn | +50.0% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD -83.6m | SGD -125.5m | SGD -188.2m | SGD -282.3m | SGD -423.4m | +50.0% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 724.7m | SGD 1.1bn | SGD 1.6bn | SGD 2.4bn | SGD 3.7bn | +50.0% |
| Discount factor | 0.9675 | 0.9057 | 0.8478 | 0.7936 | 0.7429 | - |
| Present value | SGD 701.2m | SGD 984.6m | SGD 1.4bn | SGD 1.9bn | SGD 2.7bn | +40.4% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 7.7bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.688 | Reported 0.534, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 8.67% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 5.74% | Interest expense / average total debt |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 5.7bn | 57.8% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 4.1bn | 42.2% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.83% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
73% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 3.7bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 1.9bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (35.9% of NOPAT)
- SGD -681.5m
- Capitalised
- SGD 1.2bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 7.0%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 28.8bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 21.4bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 29.1bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 3.4bn
- Equity value
- SGD 25.8bn
Exit at 7.9x EBITDA
84% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 55.4bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 41.2bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 48.9bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 3.4bn
- Equity value
- SGD 45.5bn
Spread between methods: 55%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.83% | 28.14 | 29.99 | 32.61 | 36.61 | 43.57 |
| 5.83% | 21.43 | 22.02 | 22.77 | 23.75 | 25.13 |
| 6.83% | 17.21 | 17.32 | 17.44 | 17.57 | 17.71 |
| 7.83% | 14.66 | 14.72 | 14.78 | 14.84 | 14.90 |
| 8.83% | 12.75 | 12.80 | 12.85 | 12.90 | 12.95 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 3.81. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 50.0% | 15.0% | -35.0pp |
| EBIT margin | 4.7% | 0.5% | -4.2pp |
| Discount rate | 6.8% | 21.5% | +14.7pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.