S68.SI · SES · Financial Services
Singapore Exchange Limited
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD 18.76
Market price
SGD 22.20
Implied upside
-15.5%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 22.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 1.7bn | SGD 1.9bn | SGD 2.0bn | SGD 2.2bn | SGD 2.4bn | +9.3% |
| EBIT | SGD 894.1m | SGD 977.3m | SGD 1.1bn | SGD 1.2bn | SGD 1.3bn | +9.3% |
| NOPAT | SGD 745.5m | SGD 814.8m | SGD 890.6m | SGD 973.4m | SGD 1.1bn | +9.3% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 117.1m | SGD 128.0m | SGD 139.9m | SGD 152.9m | SGD 167.1m | +9.3% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -85.3m | SGD -93.2m | SGD -101.9m | SGD -111.3m | SGD -121.7m | +9.3% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD 4.9m | SGD 5.3m | SGD 5.8m | SGD 6.3m | SGD 6.9m | -9.3% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 782.2m | SGD 854.9m | SGD 934.4m | SGD 1.0bn | SGD 1.1bn | +9.3% |
| Discount factor | 0.9650 | 0.8988 | 0.8370 | 0.7795 | 0.7260 | - |
| Present value | SGD 754.8m | SGD 768.3m | SGD 782.1m | SGD 796.1m | SGD 810.3m | +1.8% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 3.9bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.506 | Reported 0.262, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 7.49% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 23.8bn | 97.2% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 675.8m | 2.8% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 16.6% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 7.38% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
79% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 1.1bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 1.1bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (11.8% of NOPAT)
- SGD -127.3m
- Capitalised
- SGD 955.0m
- ROIC (reported)
- 21.3%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 20.1bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 14.6bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 18.5bn
- Less net debt
- SGD -1.6bn
- Equity value
- SGD 20.0bn
Exit at 20.0x EBITDA
84% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 28.9bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 21.0bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 24.9bn
- Less net debt
- SGD -1.6bn
- Equity value
- SGD 26.4bn
Spread between methods: 27%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 5.38% | 24.78 | 27.20 | 30.47 | 35.10 | 42.18 |
| 6.38% | 20.05 | 21.40 | 23.11 | 25.31 | 28.27 |
| 7.38% | 16.93 | 17.76 | 18.76 | 19.99 | 21.52 |
| 8.38% | 14.71 | 15.26 | 15.89 | 16.64 | 17.54 |
| 9.38% | 13.06 | 13.43 | 13.86 | 14.34 | 14.91 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 22.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 9.3% | 13.7% | +4.4pp |
| EBIT margin | 52.5% | 63.1% | +10.7pp |
| Discount rate | 7.4% | 6.5% | -0.8pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.