DCF Studio

    SAB.MC · MCE · Financial Services

    Banco de Sabadell, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 0.73

    Market price

    EUR 3.64

    Implied upside

    -79.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 0.73-79.9%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 1.42-61.0%
    Market price
    EUR 3.64

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m480m960mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 4.7bnEUR 4.5bnEUR 4.4bnEUR 4.2bnEUR 4.0bn-3.7%
    EBITEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.4bn-3.7%
    NOPATEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.0bn-3.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 415.0mEUR 399.5mEUR 384.5mEUR 370.1mEUR 356.3m-3.7%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -465.9mEUR -448.4mEUR -431.7mEUR -415.5mEUR -400.0m-3.7%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -182.6mEUR -175.8mEUR -169.2mEUR -162.9mEUR -156.8m-3.7%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 960.1mEUR 924.2mEUR 889.6mEUR 856.3mEUR 824.3m-3.7%
    Discount factor0.96320.89370.82920.76940.7139-
    Present valueEUR 924.8mEUR 826.0mEUR 737.7mEUR 658.9mEUR 588.5m-10.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.662Reported 0.495, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.50%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt9.64%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 17.2bn43.2% of capital
    Total debtEUR 22.5bn56.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.78%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 0.73

    72% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 824.3m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.1% of NOPAT)
    EUR -329.4m
    Capitalised
    EUR 695.4m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 13.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 9.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 13.4bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 9.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 3.8bn

    Exit at 10.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 1.42

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 18.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 13.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 16.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 9.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 7.3bn

    Spread between methods: 64%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.78%1.611.621.631.651.66
    6.78%1.091.111.121.131.14
    7.78%0.710.720.730.740.75
    8.78%0.420.430.440.450.45
    9.78%0.190.200.200.210.22

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 3.64. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-3.7%10.4%+14.2pp
    EBIT margin33.9%69.3%+35.5pp
    Discount rate7.8%3.7%-4.1pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.