DCF Studio

    SAN.PA · PAR · Healthcare

    Sanofi

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 192.25

    Market price

    EUR 74.05

    Implied upside

    +159.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 192.25+159.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 113.13+52.8%
    Market price
    EUR 74.05

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn7bn14bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 49.0bnEUR 51.3bnEUR 53.8bnEUR 56.4bnEUR 59.1bn+4.8%
    EBITEUR 10.8bnEUR 11.4bnEUR 11.9bnEUR 12.5bnEUR 13.1bn+4.8%
    NOPATEUR 8.9bnEUR 9.4bnEUR 9.8bnEUR 10.3bnEUR 10.8bn+4.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 4.7bnEUR 4.9bnEUR 5.2bnEUR 5.4bnEUR 5.7bn+4.8%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -3.3bnEUR -3.5bnEUR -3.6bnEUR -3.8bnEUR -4.0bn+4.8%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 880.2mEUR 922.6mEUR 967.1mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bn-4.8%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 11.2bnEUR 11.8bnEUR 12.4bnEUR 13.0bnEUR 13.6bn+4.8%
    Discount factor0.97300.92110.87190.82540.7814-
    Present valueEUR 10.9bnEUR 10.9bnEUR 10.8bnEUR 10.7bnEUR 10.6bn-0.8%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 53.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.518Reported 0.280, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity6.31%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.27%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 88.7bn81.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 20.3bn18.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate17.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.63%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 192.25

    78% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 13.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 10.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.9% of NOPAT)
    EUR -3.2bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 7.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 247.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 193.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 247.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 11.9bn
    Equity value
    EUR 235.6bn

    Exit at 6.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 113.13

    64% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 123.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 96.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 150.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 11.9bn
    Equity value
    EUR 138.6bn

    Spread between methods: 52%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.63%329.44392.99512.19818.673407.23
    4.63%226.41247.18277.47326.04417.06
    5.63%173.07181.40192.25207.07228.64
    6.63%140.38143.85148.05153.31160.12
    7.63%118.26119.51120.92122.56124.50

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 74.05. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year4.8%-12.1%-17.0pp
    EBIT margin22.1%8.6%-13.6pp
    Discount rate5.6%11.9%+6.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.