DCF Studio

    SBAC · NMS · Real Estate

    SBA Communications Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 72.49

    Market price

    USD 184.86

    Implied upside

    -60.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 8.34% of revenue against depreciation of 18.43%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 18.43% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 72.49-60.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 155.60-15.8%
    Market price
    USD 184.86

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bn+2.5%
    EBITUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+2.5%
    NOPATUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+2.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 528.1mUSD 541.1mUSD 554.5mUSD 568.3mUSD 582.4mUSD 596.9mUSD 611.7mUSD 627.0mUSD 642.6mUSD 658.7m+2.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -528.1mUSD -564.2mUSD -601.8mUSD -640.9mUSD -681.6mUSD -724.0mUSD -768.1mUSD -813.9mUSD -861.6mUSD -911.2m+6.2%
    Capex, % of revenue18.4%19.2%20.0%20.8%21.6%22.4%23.1%23.9%24.7%25.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -2.1mUSD -3.0mUSD -3.1mUSD -3.2mUSD -3.3mUSD -3.4mUSD -3.4mUSD -3.5mUSD -3.6mUSD -3.7m+6.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+0.4%
    Discount factor0.96520.89930.83790.78070.72730.67770.63140.58830.54810.5106-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 973.5mUSD 911.5mUSD 853.1mUSD 798.2mUSD 746.5mUSD 697.9mUSD 652.1m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 9.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.979Reported 0.968, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.03%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 19.6bn56.1% of capital
    Total debtUSD 15.3bn43.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate10.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.33%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 72.49

    61% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (16.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -252.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    15.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 27.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 13.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 22.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 7.8bn

    Exit at 18.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 155.60

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 44.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 22.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 31.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 15.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 16.7bn

    Spread between methods: 73%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.33%161.82183.88214.17257.99326.44
    6.33%100.61111.21124.89143.03168.00
    7.33%60.3965.7772.4981.0292.08
    8.33%31.9434.6437.9942.1747.43
    9.33%10.7411.9813.5415.5117.99

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 184.86. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.2%2.4%7.5%
    EBIT margin58.6%48.2%73.6%
    Discount rate-7.3%5.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.