DCF Studio

    SCYR.MC · MCE · Industrials

    Sacyr, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 8.40

    Market price

    EUR 4.12

    Implied upside

    +103.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 7.3% of revenue against depreciation of 3.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 8.40+103.7%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 3.89-5.7%
    Market price
    EUR 4.12

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m390m781mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 4.6bnEUR 4.5bnEUR 4.4bnEUR 4.3bnEUR 4.2bn-2.2%
    EBITEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.0bn-2.2%
    NOPATEUR 853.9mEUR 835.3mEUR 817.2mEUR 799.4mEUR 782.1m-2.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 160.0mEUR 156.5mEUR 153.1mEUR 149.8mEUR 146.5m-2.2%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -334.3mEUR -327.0mEUR -319.9mEUR -312.9mEUR -306.1m-2.2%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 101.2mEUR 99.0mEUR 96.9mEUR 94.8mEUR 92.7m+2.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 780.9mEUR 763.9mEUR 747.3mEUR 731.1mEUR 715.2m-2.2%
    Discount factor0.96900.90980.85430.80220.7532-
    Present valueEUR 756.7mEUR 695.0mEUR 638.4mEUR 586.4mEUR 538.7m-8.1%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.841Reported 0.763, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.67%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.19%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 3.3bn26.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 9.3bn74.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.50%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 8.40

    77% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 715.2m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 782.1m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.1% of NOPAT)
    EUR -227.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 554.2m
    ROIC (reported)
    8.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 14.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 10.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 13.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 6.6bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 3.89

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 9.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 7.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 10.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 3.1bn

    Spread between methods: 73%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.50%17.7120.4424.5231.2844.74
    5.50%11.2412.3313.7815.7918.77
    6.50%7.357.828.409.1310.08
    7.50%4.754.945.165.415.72
    8.50%2.892.942.993.043.09

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 4.12. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-2.2%-11.3%-9.1pp
    EBIT margin25.0%19.0%-5.9pp
    Discount rate6.5%7.9%+1.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.