DCF Studio

    SGO.PA · PAR · Industrials

    Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 71.99

    Market price

    EUR 69.12

    Implied upside

    +4.2%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 71.99+4.2%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 61.56-10.9%
    Market price
    EUR 69.12

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 45.0bnEUR 43.6bnEUR 42.2bnEUR 40.9bnEUR 39.6bn-3.2%
    EBITEUR 4.7bnEUR 4.6bnEUR 4.4bnEUR 4.3bnEUR 4.1bn-3.2%
    NOPATEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.3bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.1bn-3.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.1bn-3.2%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.9bnEUR -1.9bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -1.7bnEUR -1.7bn-3.2%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -79.4mEUR -76.9mEUR -74.4mEUR -72.1mEUR -69.8m-3.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 3.9bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 3.6bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.4bn-3.2%
    Discount factor0.96250.89160.82590.76500.7087-
    Present valueEUR 3.7bnEUR 3.3bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.4bn-10.3%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 15.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta1.140Reported 1.209, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.04%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.34%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 33.8bn65.6% of capital
    Total debtEUR 17.7bn34.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.6%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.95%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 71.99

    67% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 3.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 3.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (25.3% of NOPAT)
    EUR -779.1m
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    9.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 43.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 30.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 45.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 10.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 35.9bn

    Exit at 5.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 61.56

    63% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 36.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 25.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 40.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 10.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 30.7bn

    Spread between methods: 16%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.95%103.97109.92117.53127.63141.76
    6.95%83.2686.1889.7094.0699.61
    7.95%68.9270.3471.9973.9376.25
    8.95%58.3859.0159.7060.4861.36
    9.95%50.3450.5450.7550.9551.15

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 69.12. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-3.2%-3.9%-0.7pp
    EBIT margin10.5%10.1%-0.3pp
    Discount rate8.0%8.2%+0.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.