SHL.DE · GER · Healthcare
Siemens Healthineers AG
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
EUR 47.24
Market price
EUR 37.77
Implied upside
+25.1%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 24.0bn | EUR 25.8bn | EUR 27.8bn | EUR 29.9bn | EUR 32.1bn | +7.5% |
| EBIT | EUR 3.0bn | EUR 3.2bn | EUR 3.5bn | EUR 3.7bn | EUR 4.0bn | +7.5% |
| NOPAT | EUR 2.3bn | EUR 2.4bn | EUR 2.6bn | EUR 2.8bn | EUR 3.0bn | +7.5% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | EUR 1.5bn | EUR 1.6bn | EUR 1.7bn | EUR 1.8bn | EUR 2.0bn | +7.5% |
| Less capital expenditure | EUR -880.3m | EUR -946.4m | EUR -1.0bn | EUR -1.1bn | EUR -1.2bn | +7.5% |
| Less increase in working capital | EUR -375.4m | EUR -403.6m | EUR -433.9m | EUR -466.5m | EUR -501.5m | +7.5% |
| Free cashflow to firm | EUR 2.5bn | EUR 2.7bn | EUR 2.9bn | EUR 3.1bn | EUR 3.3bn | +7.5% |
| Discount factor | 0.9629 | 0.8928 | 0.8277 | 0.7674 | 0.7115 | - |
| Present value | EUR 2.4bn | EUR 2.4bn | EUR 2.4bn | EUR 2.4bn | EUR 2.4bn | -0.3% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | EUR 12.0bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 2.60% | EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.00% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.889 | Reported 0.835, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 7.94% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.60% | Implied cost of debt of 67.4% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 2bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes. |
| Market capitalisation | EUR 42.3bn | 98.2% of capital |
| Total debt | EUR 780.0m | 1.8% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 24.5% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 7.86% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
77% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- EUR 3.3bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- EUR 3.7bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (22.0% of NOPAT)
- EUR -812.7m
- Capitalised
- EUR 2.9bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 11.3%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 55.0bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 39.1bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 51.1bn
- Less net debt
- EUR -2.0bn
- Equity value
- EUR 53.1bn
Exit at 10.0x EBITDA
78% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 60.0bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 42.7bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 54.6bn
- Less net debt
- EUR -2.0bn
- Equity value
- EUR 56.6bn
Spread between methods: 6%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 5.86% | 64.28 | 68.26 | 73.39 | 80.29 | 90.06 |
| 6.86% | 52.70 | 54.78 | 57.32 | 60.49 | 64.57 |
| 7.86% | 44.76 | 45.90 | 47.24 | 48.83 | 50.76 |
| 8.86% | 38.99 | 39.61 | 40.33 | 41.14 | 42.09 |
| 9.86% | 34.59 | 34.92 | 35.29 | 35.69 | 36.14 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 37.77. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 7.5% | 1.4% | -6.1pp |
| EBIT margin | 12.5% | 9.4% | -3.1pp |
| Discount rate | 7.9% | 9.3% | +1.5pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.