DCF Studio

    SIE.DE · GER · Industrials

    Siemens Aktiengesellschaft

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 119.36

    Market price

    EUR 264.00

    Implied upside

    -54.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 119.36-54.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 261.32-1.0%
    Market price
    EUR 264.00

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn11bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 81.4bnEUR 83.9bnEUR 86.5bnEUR 89.2bnEUR 92.0bn+3.1%
    EBITEUR 9.5bnEUR 9.8bnEUR 10.1bnEUR 10.4bnEUR 10.7bn+3.1%
    NOPATEUR 7.3bnEUR 7.5bnEUR 7.8bnEUR 8.0bnEUR 8.2bn+3.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 3.7bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 3.9bnEUR 4.0bnEUR 4.2bn+3.1%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -2.4bnEUR -2.4bnEUR -2.5bnEUR -2.6bnEUR -2.7bn+3.1%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 740.5mEUR 763.5mEUR 787.3mEUR 811.8mEUR 837.1m-3.1%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 9.4bnEUR 9.7bnEUR 10.0bnEUR 10.3bnEUR 10.6bn+3.1%
    Discount factor0.96150.88880.82170.75960.7022-
    Present valueEUR 9.0bnEUR 8.6bnEUR 8.2bnEUR 7.8bnEUR 7.4bn-4.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 41.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta1.190Reported 1.283, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.74%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.16%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 206.0bn78.6% of capital
    Total debtEUR 56.0bn21.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate23.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.17%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 119.36

    69% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 10.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 10.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -3.2bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 7.3bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 132.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 93.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 134.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 39.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 94.7bn

    Exit at 19.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 261.32

    83% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 293.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 205.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 246.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 39.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 207.4bn

    Spread between methods: 75%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.17%176.83180.23184.35189.52196.36
    7.17%141.22141.90142.58143.26143.94
    8.17%118.22118.79119.36119.93120.51
    9.17%100.24100.72101.21101.70102.19
    10.17%85.8086.2286.6487.0787.49

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 264.00. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year3.1%16.6%+13.5pp
    EBIT margin11.7%24.5%+12.8pp
    Discount rate8.2%5.2%-3.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.