DCF Studio

    SJM · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    The J. M. Smucker Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 175.35

    Market price

    USD 131.35

    Implied upside

    +33.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-04-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 175.35+33.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 150.63+14.7%
    Market price
    USD 131.35

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.0bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.5bn+1.9%
    EBITUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+1.9%
    NOPATUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bn+1.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 496.4mUSD 502.4mUSD 509.3mUSD 517.0mUSD 525.8mUSD 535.5mUSD 546.3mUSD 558.2mUSD 571.3mUSD 585.6m+1.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -464.1mUSD -494.2mUSD -525.9mUSD -559.1mUSD -594.3mUSD -631.4mUSD -670.8mUSD -712.7mUSD -757.2mUSD -804.7m+6.3%
    Capex, % of revenue5.2%5.5%5.7%6.0%6.3%6.6%6.8%7.1%7.4%7.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 7.0mUSD -6.2mUSD -7.1mUSD -8.1mUSD -9.1mUSD -10.1mUSD -11.2mUSD -12.4mUSD -13.6mUSD -14.8m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn-0.6%
    Discount factor0.97040.91390.86060.81050.76330.71880.67690.63750.60030.5654-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 997.4mUSD 932.5mUSD 872.8mUSD 817.8mUSD 767.0mUSD 720.1mUSD 676.7mUSD 636.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.499Reported 0.252, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.00%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 14.0bn66.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 7.1bn33.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.19%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 175.35

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -472.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 30.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 17.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.7bn

    Exit at 11.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 150.63

    63% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 25.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 23.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 7.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 16.1bn

    Spread between methods: 15%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.19%334.82375.54441.92566.38875.76
    5.19%228.28240.93259.17286.87332.41
    6.19%167.16170.49175.35182.44193.02
    7.19%127.50127.13127.14127.67128.92
    8.19%99.6797.7195.7793.8491.94

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 131.35. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.0%1.5%-0.8%
    EBIT margin19.0%16.3%13.0%
    Discount rate-6.2%7.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.