DCF Studio

    SKA-B.ST · STO · Industrials

    Skanska AB (publ)

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    SEK 221.42

    Market price

    SEK 269.90

    Implied upside

    -18.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    SEK 221.42-18.0%
    Exit multiple
    SEK 305.82+13.3%
    Market price
    SEK 269.90

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (SEK). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn10bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todaySEK
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueSEK 181.4bnSEK 186.3bnSEK 191.3bnSEK 196.4bnSEK 201.7bn+2.7%
    EBITSEK 6.3bnSEK 6.4bnSEK 6.6bnSEK 6.8bnSEK 7.0bn+2.7%
    NOPATSEK 5.0bnSEK 5.1bnSEK 5.3bnSEK 5.4bnSEK 5.6bn+2.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationSEK 4.1bnSEK 4.2bnSEK 4.3bnSEK 4.4bnSEK 4.5bn+2.7%
    Less capital expenditureSEK -2.8bnSEK -2.9bnSEK -3.0bnSEK -3.1bnSEK -3.2bn+2.7%
    Less increase in working capitalSEK 2.4bnSEK 2.5bnSEK 2.6bnSEK 2.6bnSEK 2.7bn-2.7%
    Free cashflow to firmSEK 8.7bnSEK 8.9bnSEK 9.2bnSEK 9.4bnSEK 9.7bn+2.7%
    Discount factor0.95680.87600.80190.73420.6721-
    Present valueSEK 8.3bnSEK 7.8bnSEK 7.4bnSEK 6.9bnSEK 6.5bn-6.0%
    Present Value Of The ForecastSEK 36.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.902Reported 0.854, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.06%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationSEK 111.8bn87.6% of capital
    Total debtSEK 15.9bn12.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.23%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareSEK 221.42

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    SEK 9.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    SEK 5.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.1% of NOPAT)
    SEK -1.5bn
    Capitalised
    SEK 4.1bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 61.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 41.6bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 78.5bn
    Less net debt
    SEK -13.2bn
    Equity value
    SEK 91.8bn

    Exit at 9.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareSEK 305.82

    67% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 113.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 76.6bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 113.5bn
    Less net debt
    SEK -13.2bn
    Equity value
    SEK 126.7bn

    Spread between methods: 32%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (SEK) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.23%262.98263.66264.34265.02265.70
    8.23%239.21239.78240.35240.92241.50
    9.23%220.44220.93221.42221.91222.40
    10.23%205.21205.64206.06206.48206.91
    11.23%192.59192.96193.33193.70194.07

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 269.90. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year2.7%5.5%+2.8pp
    EBIT margin3.5%4.6%+1.1pp
    Discount rate9.2%7.0%-2.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.