DCF Studio

    SMCI · NMS · Technology

    Super Micro Computer, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 76.16

    Market price

    USD 30.44

    Implied upside

    +150.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.58% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.0% of revenue against depreciation of 0.3%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 76.16+150.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 64.87+113.1%
    Market price
    USD 30.44

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -3bn2bn6bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 58.6bnUSD 68.1bnUSD 78.0bnUSD 88.0bnUSD 97.8bnUSD 106.9bnUSD 115.1bnUSD 122.0bnUSD 127.1bnUSD 130.3bn+9.3%
    EBITUSD 4.6bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 8.4bnUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 10.0bnUSD 10.3bn+9.3%
    NOPATUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 7.3bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 8.9bn+9.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 182.3mUSD 212.0mUSD 242.8mUSD 273.9mUSD 304.2mUSD 332.8mUSD 358.2mUSD 379.5mUSD 395.5mUSD 405.4m+9.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -585.9mUSD -718.5mUSD -865.6mUSD -1.0bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bn+14.3%
    Capex, % of revenue1.0%1.1%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.3%1.4%1.4%1.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -6.1bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -3.1bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -998.6m-18.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -2.6bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 6.3bn-
    Discount factor0.95320.86610.78690.71490.64960.59020.53620.48720.44270.4022-
    Present valueUSD -2.4bnUSD 981.6mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 14.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.791Reported 2.181, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity12.47%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 14.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 20.0bn69.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 8.8bn30.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.06%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 76.16

    73% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 6.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 9.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (19.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.7bn
    Capitalised
    USD 7.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    13.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 98.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 39.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 54.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 53.1bn

    Exit at 7.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 64.87

    69% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 79.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 31.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 46.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 45.2bn

    Spread between methods: 16%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.06%109.31111.55114.37117.95122.54
    9.06%90.2791.1192.2293.6895.57
    10.06%75.9075.9776.1676.5177.06
    11.06%64.7364.3664.0463.7963.62
    12.06%55.8355.2154.6154.0353.48

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 30.44. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year76.3%12.8%-4.6%
    EBIT margin10.7%7.9%4.6%
    Discount rate-10.1%16.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.