DCF Studio

    SNA · NYQ · Industrials

    Snap-on Incorporated

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 325.25

    Market price

    USD 365.07

    Implied upside

    -10.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 325.25-10.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 348.72-4.5%
    Market price
    USD 365.07

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 5.9bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.4bn+3.1%
    EBITUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn+3.1%
    NOPATUSD 987.6mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+3.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 95.5mUSD 99.1mUSD 102.6mUSD 106.1mUSD 109.6mUSD 113.0mUSD 116.4mUSD 119.7mUSD 122.8mUSD 125.9m+3.1%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -81.7mUSD -101.2mUSD -121.9mUSD -143.8mUSD -166.8mUSD -190.8mUSD -215.9mUSD -241.9mUSD -268.7mUSD -296.4m+15.4%
    Capex, % of revenue1.7%2.0%2.3%2.7%3.0%3.3%3.6%4.0%4.3%4.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 88.1mUSD -56.2mUSD -55.9mUSD -55.4mUSD -54.7mUSD -53.8mUSD -52.7mUSD -51.5mUSD -50.0mUSD -48.3m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.1bnUSD 966.2mUSD 986.1mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn-0.1%
    Discount factor0.96170.88930.82240.76060.70340.65040.60150.55630.51440.4757-
    Present valueUSD 1.0bnUSD 859.3mUSD 811.0mUSD 764.2mUSD 718.8mUSD 674.9mUSD 632.6mUSD 591.9mUSD 552.9mUSD 515.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 7.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.830Reported 0.746, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.40%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 26.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.9%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 18.9bn93.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 1.3bn6.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.13%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 325.25

    58% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (15.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -203.6m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    16.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 16.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD -332.6m
    Equity value
    USD 17.2bn

    Exit at 13.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 348.72

    61% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 23.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -332.6m
    Equity value
    USD 18.5bn

    Spread between methods: 7%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.13%441.33464.00493.45532.91588.09
    7.13%364.81376.54391.21409.87434.17
    8.13%311.43317.63325.25334.69346.54
    9.13%272.08275.26279.15283.96289.90
    10.13%241.90243.32245.12247.40250.26

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 365.07. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.1%2.2%3.7%
    EBIT margin26.3%25.7%28.9%
    Discount rate-8.1%7.5%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.