DCF Studio

    SNDK · NMS · Technology

    Sandisk Corporation

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    USD 469.88

    Market price

    USD 1075.08

    Implied upside

    -56.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 469.88-56.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 527.75-50.9%
    Market price
    USD 1075.08

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -1bn3bn7bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 30.4bnUSD 37.1bnUSD 44.5bnUSD 52.2bnUSD 59.9bnUSD 67.4bnUSD 74.0bnUSD 79.5bnUSD 83.5bnUSD 85.6bn+12.2%
    EBITUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.7bn+12.2%
    NOPATUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.4bnUSD 7.6bn+12.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.9bn+12.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -739.4mUSD -948.3mUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.0bn+16.9%
    Capex, % of revenue2.4%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.0%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -3.8bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -789.2m-16.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -826.2mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 6.0bnUSD 6.7bn-
    Discount factor0.95730.87730.80400.73680.67520.61880.56700.51970.47620.4364-
    Present valueUSD -790.9mUSD 938.1mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 17.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.000As reported
    Cost of equity9.12%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.58%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 153.0bn99.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 177.0m0.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate12.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.12%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 469.88

    74% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 6.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 8.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (6.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -545.1m
    Capitalised
    USD 7.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    36.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 115.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 50.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 68.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 72.8bn

    Exit at 11.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 527.75

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 136.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 59.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 77.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD -4.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 81.8bn

    Spread between methods: 12%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.12%629.13668.09715.80775.46852.00
    8.12%517.16541.41570.22604.93647.46
    9.12%435.76451.53469.89491.45517.10
    10.12%374.21384.78396.90410.90427.20
    11.12%326.26333.48341.68351.03361.76

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 1075.08. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year49.3%15.5%27.9%
    EBIT margin61.6%10.1%21.9%
    Discount rate-9.1%5.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.