DCF Studio

    SPG · NYQ · Real Estate

    Simon Property Group, Inc.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    USD 62.23

    Market price

    USD 221.73

    Implied upside

    -71.9%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 23.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 62.23-71.9%
    Exit multiple
    USD 172.30-22.3%
    Market price
    USD 221.73

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.7bnUSD 7.0bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 7.5bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.3bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.8bnUSD 9.0bn+3.3%
    EBITUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bn+3.3%
    NOPATUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bn+3.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+3.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -895.0mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.3bn+15.6%
    Capex, % of revenue13.4%16.0%18.6%21.2%23.8%26.5%29.1%31.7%34.3%36.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 47.3mUSD 42.9mUSD 42.4mUSD 41.8mUSD 40.9mUSD 39.8mUSD 38.6mUSD 37.1mUSD 35.4mUSD 33.6m+3.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.3bn-2.3%
    Discount factor0.95840.88020.80840.74250.68190.62630.57530.52830.48530.4457-
    Present valueUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 25.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.205Reported 1.306, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.99%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 84.2bn74.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 29.2bn25.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate1.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.88%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 62.23

    47% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.2bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    9.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 51.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 23.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 48.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 28.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 20.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 172.30

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 132.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 59.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 84.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 28.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 56.2bn

    Spread between methods: 94%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.88%115.63117.78120.81125.08131.13
    7.88%86.1786.0386.1786.6887.68
    8.88%64.6063.3962.2361.1360.12
    9.88%48.9447.5346.1344.7343.33
    10.88%37.0035.8034.5933.3832.18

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 221.73. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year6.3%3.5%12.7%
    Discount rate-8.9%5.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.