DCF Studio

    SPM.MI · MIL · Energy

    Saipem SpA

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 18.78

    Market price

    EUR 4.26

    Implied upside

    +340.3%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis line has no market capitalisation, which means it is not ordinary shares - typically a hybrid, preference line, note or unlisted stub. A discounted cashflow values a claim on the whole business, so applying it here attributes all of the group’s revenue to a security that has no such claim. Its value is its coupon and call schedule. Look up the ordinary line instead.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 18.78+340.3%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 10.38+143.4%
    Market price
    EUR 4.26

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 18.0bnEUR 20.8bnEUR 24.1bnEUR 27.9bnEUR 32.3bn+15.8%
    EBITEUR 600.7mEUR 695.5mEUR 805.3mEUR 932.5mEUR 1.1bn+15.8%
    NOPATEUR 450.5mEUR 521.6mEUR 604.0mEUR 699.4mEUR 809.8m+15.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 866.1mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.6bn+15.8%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -626.4mEUR -725.3mEUR -839.8mEUR -972.4mEUR -1.1bn+15.8%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -38.6mEUR -44.7mEUR -51.7mEUR -59.9mEUR -69.3m+15.8%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 651.7mEUR 754.6mEUR 873.7mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.2bn+15.8%
    Discount factor0.98070.94330.90730.87260.8393-
    Present valueEUR 639.1mEUR 711.8mEUR 792.7mEUR 882.8mEUR 983.2m+11.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 4.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.371Reported 1.554, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity13.11%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 0.000.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 3.1bn100.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC3.97%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 18.78

    89% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 812.9m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -232.2m
    Capitalised
    EUR 580.6m
    ROIC (reported)
    8.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 40.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 34.0bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 38.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 36.4bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 10.38

    82% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 21.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 17.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 21.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 20.1bn

    Spread between methods: 58%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    1.97%70.14————
    2.97%22.3431.1358.61——
    3.97%13.2315.3118.7825.8147.79
    4.97%9.3710.1311.1912.7815.44
    5.97%7.237.557.978.519.27

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 4.26. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year15.8%-13.5%-29.3pp
    EBIT margin3.3%0.8%-2.6pp
    Discount rate4.0%9.0%+5.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.