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    STX · NMS · Technology

    Seagate Technology Holdings plc

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    USD 329.01

    Market price

    USD 593.76

    Implied upside

    -44.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    Current EV/EBITDA of 30.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 329.01-44.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 711.34+19.8%
    Market price
    USD 593.76

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn6bn12bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 18.3bnUSD 25.6bnUSD 34.5bnUSD 45.1bnUSD 56.7bnUSD 68.7bnUSD 80.0bnUSD 89.5bnUSD 95.9bnUSD 98.3bn+20.5%
    EBITUSD 2.9bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 12.6bnUSD 14.1bnUSD 15.1bnUSD 15.5bn+20.5%
    NOPATUSD 2.5bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 10.9bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 13.0bnUSD 13.3bn+20.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 731.7mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bn+20.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -719.6mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -4.6bnUSD -5.1bnUSD -5.4bn+25.1%
    Capex, % of revenue3.9%4.1%4.3%4.5%4.6%4.8%5.0%5.2%5.3%5.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -331.7mUSD -395.8mUSD -488.4mUSD -572.4mUSD -632.5mUSD -652.0mUSD -615.7mUSD -514.4mUSD -348.4mUSD -130.4m-9.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.2bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 5.3bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 8.1bnUSD 9.5bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.7bn+20.7%
    Discount factor0.94350.84000.74780.66570.59260.52760.46970.41810.37220.3314-
    Present valueUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 3.9bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 36.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.805Reported 2.201, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity12.53%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.19%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 136.3bn97.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.9bn2.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate13.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC12.33%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 329.01

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 11.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 13.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (11.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.5bn
    Capitalised
    USD 11.9bn
    ROIC (reported)
    22.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 123.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 41.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 77.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 75.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 711.34

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 387.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 128.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 165.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 2.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 162.9bn

    Spread between methods: 73%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    10.33%417.70424.96433.40443.28454.90
    11.33%365.54369.95375.08381.06388.04
    12.33%323.44326.01329.02332.54336.68
    13.33%288.83290.17291.79293.74296.05
    14.33%259.94260.45261.14262.04263.18

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 593.76. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year18.2%23.2%31.5%
    EBIT margin34.7%15.7%27.6%
    Discount rate-12.3%8.5%
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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.