DCF Studio

    SW · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Smurfit Westrock Plc

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 72.93

    Market price

    USD 43.40

    Implied upside

    +68.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 72.93+68.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 67.82+56.3%
    Market price
    USD 43.40

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 32.1bnUSD 34.5bnUSD 36.8bnUSD 39.0bnUSD 41.1bnUSD 43.1bnUSD 45.0bnUSD 46.6bnUSD 48.1bnUSD 49.3bn+4.9%
    EBITUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bn+4.9%
    NOPATUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bn+4.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bn+4.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -3.0bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -3.7bn+5.5%
    Capex, % of revenue7.1%7.2%7.2%7.3%7.3%7.4%7.4%7.5%7.5%7.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -132.4mUSD -323.8mUSD -318.8mUSD -309.7mUSD -296.3mUSD -278.6mUSD -256.6mUSD -230.5mUSD -200.5mUSD -167.0m+2.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bn+4.2%
    Discount factor0.96490.89830.83630.77860.72490.67490.62840.58500.54460.5071-
    Present valueUSD 2.1bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 18.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.961Reported 0.942, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.96%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.14%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 22.8bn62.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 13.8bn37.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.41%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 72.93

    65% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.3bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 65.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 33.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 51.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 38.1bn

    Exit at 7.5x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 67.82

    63% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 59.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 30.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 48.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 12.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 35.4bn

    Spread between methods: 7%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.41%125.33131.61140.47153.53174.08
    6.41%93.7495.5198.05101.67106.94
    7.41%72.9172.8272.9373.3374.11
    8.41%58.1657.2456.3455.4754.63
    9.41%48.1347.2146.3045.3844.46

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 43.40. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year32.2%4.7%0.1%
    EBIT margin12.8%9.8%6.6%
    Discount rate-7.4%9.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.